FX.co ★ US Consumer Inflation Expectations Ease in May

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US edged down to 3.5% in May 2026 from 3.6% in April, when they reached a one-year high. Expectations for price growth eased for gas (by 0.1 percentage point to 5%), medical care (by 0.7 percentage point to 8.9%), and college education (by 0.8 percentage point to 8%).

By contrast, consumers now anticipate faster price increases for housing (up 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, the highest since July 2022), food (up 0.6 percentage point to 5.8%), and rent (up 1.4 percentage points to 7.4%).

Inflation expectations at the three-year and five-year horizons were unchanged, at 3.1% and 3%, respectively.

Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations held steady at 2.7%, while nominal household spending growth expectations declined by 0.4 percentage point to 5%. In addition, mean unemployment expectations fell by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%.