FX.co ★ Treasury Yields Little Changed on Friday

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.39% on Friday, down 7 basis points for the week, after an essentially in-line PCE inflation report led investors to slightly pare back expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases this year. Headline PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, while the core rate climbed to 3.4%—the highest level since 2023 and well above the Fed’s 2% target—though both figures were in line with forecasts. At the same time, markets are closely watching developments in the Middle East. Oil prices extended their recent declines even as geopolitical tensions re-emerged following an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. Fed rate expectations remain elevated, with markets still pricing in three rate hikes this year and assigning roughly a 62% probability to the first move coming in September.