FX.co ★ Dollar Index Near 101

The dollar index inched higher at the start of the week, trading near 101, but stayed close to a three-week low after recording its steepest weekly decline since April. The greenback came under pressure after June US payroll data showed a sharp slowdown in job growth, leading investors to dial back expectations for further Fed rate hikes this year. At the same time, oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, easing worries about a resurgence in inflationary pressures. Markets are now assigning about a 56% chance of a Fed rate increase as early as September, down from roughly 64% before the jobs report. Investors will be watching the release of the FOMC minutes later this week for additional insight into the Fed’s policy outlook. On Monday, the dollar saw its largest gains against the yen, which remains close to a 40-year low, with the persistent risk of official intervention keeping traders on alert.