FX.co ★ Wheat Futures Retreat

Wheat futures eased to around $6.70 per bushel in mid-July, pulling back from a more than two-year high reached on July 15 as traders took profits. Even with the decline, prices remained elevated amid persistent geopolitical risks, as the Russia-Ukraine war showed no signs of abating. Russian forces resumed strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Black Sea coast, in retaliation for recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

On the downside for prices, the USDA reported US wheat net export sales of 235,100 metric tons for the week ended July 9, falling short of market expectations. At the same time, fresh supply concerns emerged after the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia forecast the state’s 2026 wheat harvest at 9.5 million tons, almost 30% below the 13.3 million tons projected for 2025, as hotter and drier weather weighs on yields. Australia, one of the world’s leading wheat exporters, is a critical supplier to key markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and China.