FX.co ★ Bund Yields Hold Near Two-Month High Ahead of ECB

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield erased early gains to trade just above 3.1% as crude prices fell back amid signs of renewed diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran. Even with the pullback, the benchmark yield stayed near a two-month high, while the more policy-sensitive two-year Bund yield rose above 2.8%, its highest level since July 2024. Brent crude had earlier reached its strongest level in more than a month as escalating US-Iran tensions threatened oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, stoking inflation concerns and bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will deliver two further rate hikes by early 2027, with the first move anticipated as soon as September. Market focus now shifts to Thursday’s ECB policy meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged and adopt a wait-and-see approach following June’s first rate increase in three years.