FX.co ★ German Trade Surplus Below Estimates

Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €15.4 billion in June 2026 from an upwardly revised €19.3 billion in May, falling short of market expectations of €17.4 billion, as imports grew more strongly than exports.

Exports increased by 0.9% month-on-month to €139.3 billion in June, their highest level in nearly four years. This followed an upwardly revised 1.1% rise in May and exceeded forecasts of 0.2% growth. Exports to EU member states advanced 1.3%, while shipments to non-EU (“third”) countries were up 0.3%, supported in particular by a 7.7% increase in exports to the UK. By contrast, exports to the US, Germany’s largest single export market, dropped sharply, falling 14.1%.

Imports rose 2.4% month-on-month to €123.9 billion in June, the highest level in more than three and a half years. This marked a strong rebound from a marginally revised 2.6% decline in May and exceeded expectations of a 1.0% increase. Purchases from EU countries climbed 7.4%, while imports from third countries grew 1.4%, driven by a 9.1% rise in imports from China.

Over the first half of 2026, Germany recorded a cumulative trade surplus of €105 billion, with exports up 3.7% and imports rising 4.4% year-on-year.