FX.co ★ Dollar Ticks Higher, Still Near 2-Month Low

The dollar index inched up to 99.7 on Monday, after a 0.4% decline last week that pushed the greenback to a two-month low. Investors are now focused on this week’s CPI release for fresh insight into inflation dynamics, following Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, which dampened expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. The probability of such a move is now estimated at about 46%, down from roughly 64% a week earlier, while the odds of the Fed leaving rates unchanged stand at around 54%.

At the same time, markets continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and ongoing negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though a near-term agreement between the US and Iran is viewed as unlikely. The dollar was mostly stronger against the yen, as the Japanese currency surrendered part of its earlier, intervention-fueled gains, yet it still traded well above the multi-decade low reached late last month.