FX.co ★ Cocoa Futures at Over 1-Month High

Cocoa futures traded above $5,900 per tonne, hovering near their highest level since early July, supported by a weaker US dollar and persistent concerns over the next West African crop. While the 2025/26 season has brought a marked recovery in supply thanks to improved weather, traders are growing more cautious about the 2026/27 outlook as weather-related risks mount. A potentially strong El Niño could delay rainfall and prolong dry conditions in key West African producers, while hotter, wetter conditions in Ecuador may heighten disease pressures. Hedgepoint Global Markets now expects the global cocoa surplus to shrink by 66% to 111,000 tons in 2026/27, down from 325,000 tons this season. At the same time, production forecasts in major origins have been revised lower, with Ghana projecting a 13% drop in output to 650,000 tons next season, and Ivory Coast’s crop expected to decline by more than 10%.