FX.co ★ Euro Rises Ahead of ECB Decision

The euro inched up to $1.164, its highest level since late August, as investors positioned themselves ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting. Policymakers are widely expected to deliver another interest rate increase while reiterating a data-dependent approach, with the ongoing war involving Iran adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel for the first time since July 24, and European natural gas prices rose to fresh three-and-a-half-year highs, as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked fears over energy supplies. Markets are now pricing in two ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the deposit rate seen reaching 3% by late 2027. A Reuters poll published on September 3 indicated that economists expect the ECB to raise rates again on Thursday, marking a second consecutive increase and likely bringing to a close what would be its shortest rate-hiking cycle in 15 years.