FX.co ★ New Zealand Dollar Struggles Near 11-Month Low

The New Zealand dollar stabilized around $0.560 after briefly dipping below that level to its weakest point since November 2025 in the previous session. The currency drew only modest support from data showing a sharp improvement in business confidence in the third quarter: a net 43% of firms now expect general business conditions to improve in the coming months, up from a net 8% in the previous quarter, despite higher fuel costs and ongoing geopolitical risks. Even so, the kiwi remained under pressure from a stronger US dollar, bolstered by elevated US Treasury yields. Political uncertainty ahead of the November general election is adding to the headwinds. Money markets currently assign about a 58% probability that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% later this month, while a further hike in December is priced in at more than 100%.