FX.co ★ Wheat Rebounds on Dim Russian Export Outlook

Wheat futures climbed to $6 per bushel, rebounding from a nearly four‑month low reached on November 4, as a tighter Russian export outlook intensified concerns about global supply. Consultancy IKAR cut its 2026–27 Russian wheat export forecast to 39.5 million metric tons from 42 million, Interfax reported. Projections for total grain exports were also reduced, to 49.5 million tons from 52.8 million.

Persistent logistical bottlenecks in key Black Sea export routes have continued to disrupt shipments, pushing Russian exporters to shift more volumes onto rail networks and through Baltic ports to keep trade moving. These alternative channels, however, are approaching capacity, limiting their ability to absorb additional shocks.

At the same time, market participants are closely monitoring next week’s trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington for any signs of progress toward resolving the conflict. A meaningful breakthrough could improve the outlook for global grain trade and ease some of the current supply concerns.