FX.co ★ Helsinki | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold prices swung between small gains and losses around the crucial $4,000 level during Monday's Asian trading, with the precious metal trapped in a fierce battle as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps heating up while the American economic calendar stays relatively thin this week. Bullion is still finding some underlying support after suffering its worst weekly drop in six weeks during the previous period, though sellers continue to hover nearby as the U.S. dollar successfully holds onto its safe-haven appeal against the backdrop of the quickly worsening military standoff between Washington and Tehran. Both sides have now moved into the tenth day of increased fighting following the breakout of fresh attacks that seem to have torn apart the shaky ceasefire, sparking a strong rebound in crude oil prices and driving inflation worries higher across global financial markets. U.S. Central Command posted on Sunday that operations will keep going to wear down Iranian military abilities used to target merchant ships and civilian sailors passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with these newest strikes coming after an American soldier was killed in Iraq on Saturday and two U.S. troops died in Jordan on Friday. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit back by claiming it struck American aircraft with ballistic missiles at Aqaba airport in Jordan, while issuing a blunt warning that the waterway would remain dangerous as long as what it called American aggression continues, openly threatening that not even a single drop of oil or gas would move safely through the passage. The IRGC also told U.S. military forces to get ready for a retaliatory operation. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped more than two percent at the start of the week, adding to inflation fears and locking in market expectations for at least two more Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, with the first move seen as early as September. This steadily hawkish Fed story keeps the dollar broadly strong and discourages gold buyers from trying to step in during pullbacks, while Fed officials keep stressing that more rate increases might be needed to bring inflationary pressures under control.

XAU/USD is currently trading around the $4,022 mark on the daily chart, with the technical picture holding a firmly bearish stance as spot prices remain stuck well below all the major moving averages. The 21-day Simple Moving Average at $4,071 stands as the closest overhead resistance barrier, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,277 and the more distant 200-day SMA at $4,496, with the 100-day SMA sitting a bit higher at $4,523, all together keeping steady downward pressure on price action. On the hourly chart, the 50-period SMA rests at $4,015 and the 200-period SMA at $4,045, both hovering near the current price and reflecting the near-term uncertainty. The four-hour timeframe places the 50-period SMA at $4,060 and the 200-period SMA at $4,130, building a layered resistance ladder overhead. Immediate overhead resistance is set at the 21-day SMA near $4,071, with a daily close above this level needed to ease the immediate selling pressure and clear a path toward the 50-day SMA around $4,277. Further resistance sits at the 200-day SMA near $4,496 and the 100-day SMA just above $4,523, forming a thick resistance band likely to cap any meaningful recovery as long as the price stays below that area. The support side lacks clearly defined structural levels from the available indicators, leaving gold open to further corrective losses until fresh demand areas show up on the chart, with the $4,000 psychological magnet acting as the immediate floor, followed by the $3,950 zone and the $3,900 defensive layer, with deeper support near $3,850 and the ultimate structural floor at $3,800. Additional support can be found at the $3,750 area and the $3,700 level, where buyers may finally step in to defend against a more severe breakdown.