FX.co ★ KHALISA | GBP/USD

Fundamental Analysis The macroeconomic landscape for the GBP/USD pair is currently dictated by divergent central bank policy expectations and shifts in global risk sentiment. Sterling has demonstrated distinct relative strength throughout July 2026, primarily supported by sticky UK inflation metrics—particularly within the services sector—which has forced the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain a cautious and hawkish tone. Despite signs of uneven UK GDP growth, market participants continue to price out aggressive monetary easing ahead of the upcoming BoE policy meeting. In contrast, the US Dollar has faced underlying pressure following softer-than-expected macro data, including a notable jobs report miss, driving market expectations toward eventual Federal Reserve easing cycles, even as Fed officials preach patience. While broader risk appetite faces crosswinds from corporate earnings volatility and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the structural interest rate differential continues to favor the Pound. Volatility is expected to compress slightly ahead of high-impact central bank decisions at the end of the month, but the prevailing macro backdrop remains structurally supportive of Sterling on dips. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3452, locking into a crucial short-term inflection zone. The pair recently staged a robust 400-pip reversal from its late-June structural low near 1.3143, establishing a clear bullish bias on the medium-term timeframes. The current spot price represents a mild intraday pullback from a fresh monthly high printed just under the psychological 1.3500 handle, which remains the primary overhead technical ceiling. The price action is currently retesting the 1.3450 level, a key former resistance zone that acts as immediate support. Should buyers fail to defend this level, secondary support is anchored between the 1.3390 Fibonacci level and the 1.3400 psychological mark. Momentum indicators reflect a market in consolidation; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moderated toward neutral territory, while the MACD histogram shows a cooling of topside velocity without flashes of a bearish reversal. The short-term directional expectation remains cautiously bullish, anticipating a period of consolidation above 1.3400 before bulls attempt a renewed breakout above 1.3500 toward the 1.3550 objective.

Hi Akhash, I'm happy to read your daily updated journal. It's a great resource for me to develop a more robust trading plan. In my opinion, the GBPUSD currency pair is currently in a solid uptrend, both on large and small timeframes. Looking at the daily timeframe, the price remains firmly above the 50-day Moving Average and the middle Bollinger Band, a strong indication that the bullish trend is still intact. This is further reinforced by the MACD, which continues to rise above the signal line and the zero line, confirming that the market is dominated by strong buying. Last week, the price even touched 1.3550, the daily supply zone. It's natural that sellers enter this supply zone, forcing the price to undergo a correction.

However, the correction was short-lived, as the price rebounded. This can be seen more clearly on the 4-hour timeframe, or H4 chart, where the uptrend remains remarkably smooth. The Bollinger Bands are still pointing upwards, and the price experienced a valid rejection at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.3430. This level also represents a resistance-to-support (SR) flip, providing a strong foothold for buyers. As long as the price remains above the middle band and the 50-day EMA (EMA), the bullish structure remains valid, and the price appears to be starting to rise back to 1.3460, opening the opportunity for a continuation of the uptrend. However, it's also worth noting the level of saturation seen since last week. When the price briefly exited the upper Bollinger Band, then re-entered and closed within the band, this is a classic indication of overbought conditions, forcing the price to correct downwards first. This is in line with the MACD indicator on H4, which is currently trending downwards, so the potential for a deeper correction remains open before the upward trend continues. Corrections like this are normal in a healthy uptrend to neutralize momentum. Therefore, my primary reference remains the uptrend, making a buy option the most rational choice. My trading plan for GBPUSD is to wait for a buy entry around 1.3430, which is the dynamic support area of the 50-day moving average (EMA) and the reverse SR, with a stop-loss at 1.3310 to anticipate a false breakout. Meanwhile, my profit target is set at 1.3550, the nearest resistance level, which previously served as a supply area. That's my trading plan for GBPUSD based solely on trend analysis. Hopefully, someone will respond or perhaps share my views. Let's discuss this further in our friend's journal.