FX.co ★ Kiwi Dollar Subdued Ahead of RBNZ Rate Outlook

The New Zealand dollar eased to about $0.603, moving sideways as investors awaited fresh guidance on the interest rate outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later this week. The RBNZ will hold its first policy meeting of the year on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, having signalled last year that its easing cycle had ended. Market participants will focus on whether the central bank reiterates its guidance that mid-2027 remains the most likely timing for a possible rate increase, as well as on any indications of how newly appointed Governor Anna Breman assesses the economic outlook. Financial markets are more hawkish, assigning a 68% probability to a rate hike by September and fully pricing one in by October, despite mixed recent data. Figures for January showed electronic retail card spending down 1.1% and a loss of momentum in service-sector activity, pointing to a soft start to the year.