FX.co ★ Mexican GDP Revised Higher

Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, erasing part of the 0.9% expansion recorded in the final quarter of 2025. The figure was revised from an initial estimate of a 0.8% contraction, but still came in weaker than market expectations of a 0.5% decline.

The GDP performance was broadly consistent with projections from the Bank of Mexico, which resumed its interest rate cutting cycle despite a sharp rebound in inflation from March.

By sector, output in primary activities fell by 1.7%, even amid higher silver and energy prices. Secondary sector production declined by 1.0%, as manufacturers continued to adjust to US tariffs, weighing heavily on external demand for autos. In addition, services output decreased by 0.4%.

On an annual basis, GDP edged up by 0.2%.