FX.co ★ Aimee | USD/JPY

Technical analysis 31 October 2025 USD/JPY H-1

With the price breaking through the resistance level in the previous trading session and trading above the daily pivot point, we can consider the buy option as one of our primary trading options today, considering the bullish candlestick pattern still dominates the H1 timeframe chart. Summary The strong bullish trend in USD/JPY has stalled at a major resistance level of 153.99. Momentum indicators are showing clear signs of bearish divergence and exhaustion, indicating that a short-term pullback or reversal is very likely. Detailed Analysis * Price Action and Trend * Primary Trend: The primary trend is strongly bullish, as seen by the sharp rally from October 28 to October 30. * Resistance: The price has hit the wall at 153.99 (purple line). The candles have become shorter and are failing to close above this level, which is a sign of buyer exhaustion and strong selling pressure. * Indicator Analysis: Bearish Gap * RSI (14): The RSI is at 59.56. It is rejected by near-term overbought conditions (above 70). This indicates that the buying momentum that has been driving the price higher is fading. MACD (12, 26, 9): *Divergence: This is the clearest warning sign. While the price made a new high on October 30 (around 17:00), the MACD histogram (gray bars) made a lower high. This is a strong bearish divergence, which often precedes a price decline. * Bearish crossover: The MACD line (red) has inverted and crossed below its signal line. This is a classic “sell” signal, confirming that the short-term momentum has shifted downwards. Key levels. * Resistance (R_1): 153.99 (immediate ceiling and key level to watch). * Support (S_1): ~153.35 (recent swing low). * Support (S_2): ~152.60 (previous consolidation area, now expected to act as support). Possible scenarios. * Bearish scenario (more likely): Given the sharp bearish divergence and rejection at resistance, the most likely scenario is a short-term correction. A break below the 153.35 support will likely trigger selling with the next target at 152.60. * Bullish scenario: To continue the uptrend, buyers will need to decisively break and hold above the 153.99 resistance. However, indicators suggest that this is unlikely without a significant pullback first. Buyers will likely retest the resistance level formed in Thursday's trading session, at 151.40 and 151.30. Therefore, we can use this as a take-profit target for the buy option in today's trading session. That's all from me; continue to use the right lot size and capital to avoid significant losses.