FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see the moving average indicator giving a clear buy signal, and I interpret this as confirmation that the dominant pressure in GOLD remains bullish despite recent volatility. I believe that as long as the market continues to form new lows within a corrective structure rather than breaking key supports impulsively, the broader trend should still be treated as bullish. I consider the price acceleration on Monday to be a breakout from the sellers’ zone around 4391, and I view this move as evidence that short sellers were forced to exit positions. I recall that when the instrument was hovering near the short-sellers’ candlestick, the market lacked clarity, which made medium-term positioning risky and uncertain. I expect that a corrective move toward the previously broken level at 4352 is still possible, especially if the market opens under mild pressure. I think that if the decline begins immediately at the market open, the price has a high probability of reaching the indicated support area. I also believe that if the trading session instead starts with a confident breakout of the local level at 4314, then long positions aimed at selling higher could become justified. I remind myself that I will not enter short positions until my trend indicators clearly shift to bearish and a proper sell signal is formed. I remember my experience from last summer when I traded countertrend without a stop-loss, suffered a major loss, and learned a painful but valuable lesson. I therefore accept staying out of the market as a valid decision, especially considering thin end-of-year liquidity and slower price behavior.

I acknowledge that although a northward continuation may slow, I do not expect a sustainable move south without clear technical confirmation. I recognize that my indicators are still pointing toward trend continuation, and I even observe a semi-buy signal with a stop-loss below the local low at 4319.50. I note that the current price offers a slightly better entry than when that signal originally appeared, but I consciously choose not to act on it due to limited capital and my rule to avoid late-week American session signals. I reflect on August, when I achieved my best trading results in gold, and I contrast that disciplined approach with my current caution. I focus now on scalping gold on lower timeframes, where I find frequent opportunities in both directions. I rely on a combination of moving averages and the Butterfly pattern, keeping my stop-losses tight and my profit targets modest. I usually limit each trade to two to five dollars, understanding that speed and precision matter more than ambition on short timeframes. I accept that the five-minute rule sometimes reduces my profit potential, but I value consistency over perfection. I observe that gold recently approached but failed to reach a new all-time high, creating a plateau near 4307.05 and signaling hesitation. I believe that only a break below 4258.86 would meaningfully challenge the bullish structure, while anything above keeps the picture unclear. I therefore conclude that patience remains my strongest tool, and I do not expect gold to rise meaningfully at the opening of the new trading week.