FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I analyze the EUR/USD pair primarily through the lens of the daily timeframe, and I observe that the pair has been trading within a broad sideways range since July, which clearly defines the medium-term market structure. I note that after rebounding from the long-term support area near 1.1490, the price began forming a steady upward movement, which evolved into a narrower ascending channel inside the wider range. I see that this behavior suggests accumulation rather than distribution, and I interpret this as a sign that buyers still control the medium-term trend. I observe that the daily indicators largely support this view, as channel analysis, reversal line analysis, and MACD-EMA dynamics all point upward, while the remaining components remain neutral rather than bearish. I consider the fact that the price has been holding above the historically significant 1.1761 level for several sessions as an important confirmation of bullish resilience. I notice that price action between 1.1761 and 1.1818 reflects consolidation rather than exhaustion, which often precedes continuation. I believe that a daily close below 1.1761 would be the first meaningful warning signal of increased selling pressure. I still expect that, as long as this level holds, the market maintains potential to retest 1.1818 and possibly extend toward 1.1853. I also recognize that year-end conditions typically limit volatility, and I factor this seasonal behavior into my expectations for slower, more controlled movement rather than sharp directional breaks.

I shift my focus to the H4 timeframe, and I see that the short-term structure remains constructive despite intermittent corrective waves. I observe that the price is trading within an ascending channel while temporarily forming a downward corrective leg inside it, which is a classic trend continuation pattern. I note that the recent decline toward 1.1760 brought the price to the lower boundary of the channel, where buyers quickly stepped in. I interpret Friday’s close near 1.1775 as confirmation that selling pressure weakened at support. I see that the AO histogram turning red and the KST pointing downward reflect short-term momentum loss rather than a full trend reversal. I acknowledge that moving averages often lag price, and I therefore treat their signals with caution during low-liquidity periods. I consider the hourly Fibonacci targets at 1.1747 and 1.1717 as valid intraday objectives if bearish pressure briefly resumes. I also recognize that a sustained breakout above 1.1795 would invalidate the short-term bearish setup and shift focus back to upside expansion. I believe that the most realistic scenario into year-end is a flat market with price oscillating around key moving averages. I expect any downside probes below 1.1765 to be brief and corrective rather than impulsive. I ultimately conclude that consolidation dominates the near term, while the broader structure continues to favor gradual upside development once liquidity returns.