FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see the daily momentum on GOLD preparing for a downside reversal, and I interpret the D1 structure as highly likely to confirm a bearish turn either today or on Monday, because I notice exhaustion after consecutive highs. I expect that if this confirmation appears, I will be dealing with a corrective decline on the daily timeframe that could last several candles and potentially drag prices toward the 4460–4480 area. I acknowledge that on the H4 timeframe I may still observe growth or sideways consolidation, and I believe this can persist until clearer signs of weakness finally emerge. I recognize that the current holiday period is distorting price behavior, and I see low liquidity creating sharp, emotional movements that often trigger stop-losses. I therefore believe that wave structures on higher timeframes remain incomplete, and I cannot yet treat them as reliable confirmation. I consciously choose to focus only on short-term trades or to stay out of the market entirely, because I know from experience that aggressive positioning during holidays often damages discipline. I deliberately avoid large volumes, and I patiently wait for a clear momentum reversal and a clean structural break before committing. I was genuinely surprised that not only Asian pairs but also GOLD traded relatively cleanly in the afternoon session, and I was pleased to see price react perfectly from the 4500 round-number support I marked earlier. I admit that I missed that trade due to the holidays, and I accept that this was already the second profitable session I chose not to trade. I still believe I made the correct decision, because I know these conditions often ruin my emotional balance rather than build consistency.

I now feel almost certain that Monday and Tuesday may be far less smooth, and I am already preparing mentally to trade GOLD during those sessions with extra caution. I observe that after minor upside pushes, quotes repeatedly return to the 4500 area, and I suspect brief dips below this level are still possible. I clearly see that although GOLD has updated its highs over the past three days, bullish enthusiasm has noticeably weakened, and I partly attribute this to the holiday environment. I note that the second chart confirms price behavior almost exactly as planned, and I accept that the only miscalculation was the depth of the pullback and the exact support zone. I acknowledge that the market is currently ranging, and I intend to monitor its reaction in real time rather than anticipate outcomes. I dismiss the weekly candlestick entirely, because I know the gap structure makes it useless for directional forecasting. I observe that the daily candlestick still looks strong, and I admit it could continue rising toward my long-term target near 4685.30 without deep corrections. I sense that GOLD may continue higher next week, even if the move is split across the year-end transition. I cannot ignore my impression that rising gold often reflects global instability, and I associate this move with geopolitical escalation and systemic stress. I see that price has already pushed toward 4533 and may expand into a new range toward 4725 in January. I notice unfilled zones around 4322, 4440, and 4454, and I interpret these as accumulating downside pressure that will eventually demand resolution. I conclude that despite the lack of visible brakes right now, such extreme psychological highs almost always precede a corrective phase, and I remain disciplined, patient, and prepared for volatility rather than emotionally committed to one direction.