FX.co ★ Melsiafy | EUR/USD

EUR/USD MARKET OVERVIEW EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.1635 – 1.1650 region, entering a critical decision-making phase after an extended recovery from the November lows. The broader H1 structure shows that the pair has transitioned from a corrective bearish phase into a medium-term bullish recovery, supported by a clear rising trendline and improving price structure. However, recent price action suggests that bullish momentum is beginning to slow as the market approaches a well-defined resistance zone near 1.1700. This area has acted as a strong supply zone in previous sessions, and price reaction here is crucial for determining whether the bullish structure can extend or if a deeper corrective move is about to unfold. The current environment reflects balance rather than aggression, with price consolidating between key technical levels. This behavior is typical after a strong impulsive move and often precedes a larger directional breakout. {"data-align":"left","data-size":"custom","data-tempid":"temp_5146939_1768006091953_591","height":"461","title":"EURUSD.10-01-2026.jpg","width":"1086"} H1 Price Structure and Trend Behavior From a structural perspective, EUR/USD remains technically bullish on the H1 timeframe, supported by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since early December. The rising trendline visible on the chart continues to act as dynamic support, guiding price higher and providing a reference for bullish continuation scenarios. That said, the most recent swing from the 1.1800 region down toward 1.1640 has shifted the market into a corrective phase. This pullback has not yet violated the broader bullish structure but has introduced short-term weakness, particularly after price failed to hold above the 1.1700 supply zone. Price is now reacting around the former breakout area near 1.1650, which is acting as a key equilibrium zone. The market is effectively testing whether buyers are still willing to defend this level or if sellers will regain control. The current H1 candles show overlapping ranges, smaller bodies, and reduced momentum, signaling hesitation rather than strong conviction from either side. This supports the idea that EUR/USD is consolidating, not trending aggressively at this stage. Key Support and Resistance Zones Support Levels: 1.1635 – 1.1650: Primary intraday support and current price base. Holding above this zone keeps the bullish structure intact. 1.1580 – 1.1600: Secondary support and deeper corrective target if selling pressure increases. 1.1480 – 1.1500: Major demand zone and last bullish defense area visible on the chart. Resistance Levels: 1.1700 – 1.1720: Strong supply zone and immediate resistance area. 1.1800: Major resistance and previous swing high. 1.1900: Long-term psychological resistance if bullish continuation accelerates. - RSI is currently hovering around the 50–55 range, reflecting neutral momentum. This confirms the consolidation phase and suggests that neither buyers nor sellers are in full control. Importantly, RSI remains above the 50 level, which still favors the bullish structure on a broader H1 basis. A sustained move above 60 would support renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below 45 would warn of deeper correction. MACD remains above the zero line, indicating that the broader trend is still positive. However, the histogram is contracting, showing waning bullish momentum rather than a fresh bearish reversal. This aligns with the current price behavior, where the market is pausing after an impulsive move. Market Scenarios and Outlook Bullish Scenario: As long as EUR/USD holds above the 1.1635–1.1650 support zone, the current move can be classified as a healthy correction. A strong H1 close above 1.1700 would confirm renewed bullish strength and open the door for a move toward 1.1800 and potentially 1.1900 in the coming sessions. Bearish Scenario : A decisive break and sustained H1 close below 1.1635 would invalidate the short-term bullish structure and expose 1.1600 and 1.1500 as downside targets. Such a move would suggest that sellers are regaining control and that the recent rally was corrective rather than impulsive. EUR/USD is currently at a technical crossroads on the H1 timeframe. While the broader structure remains bullish, momentum has slowed, and price is consolidating below a major resistance zone. This phase is more about positioning and confirmation than chasing moves. Patience is essential. The next clean break — either above 1.1700 or below 1.1635 — will likely define the short-term direction and provide clearer trading opportunities. Until then, traders should respect the range and wait for confirmation rather than anticipate outcomes.