FX.co ★ Jackroay | NZD/USD

I am recapping the trading week by emphasizing that sellers clearly dominated, exactly as I had anticipated based on structure and momentum. I observed multiple attempts to hold the 0.5740 support level, and I noted that after the second and third tests, the market finally broke through it decisively. I want to clearly state that according to my trading system, the broader trend remains upward, and I interpret the current downward movement purely as a corrective phase rather than a trend reversal. I believe that once this correction is complete, the market will resume moving in the direction of the main trend. I also acknowledge that external political or macro influences, such as unpredictable actions by Trump, can temporarily distort price behavior and push the market lower than technically expected. I am therefore aware that a decline toward 0.5610 remains possible, although I personally see this level more as a potential demand zone rather than a mandatory target. I am focusing on this area as a region where I would patiently wait for bullish confirmation to rejoin the upward trend. I expect the corrective movement to continue into the next week, but I believe it will unfold in a choppy and corrective manner rather than through impulsive selling. I recognize that a corrective rebound toward 0.5770 is very realistic within this structure, and I still classify such a move as part of the broader correction. I am closely monitoring the H1 timeframe, where I see NZDUSD trading within a bearish intraday pattern after rejecting the 0.5809 resistance. I observed two distinct waves of selling that pushed price back toward the 0.5710 support level. I noticed a sharp rebound from this support, but I also recognized that it lacked strong bullish absorption, which suggests weakness in buyers. I therefore expect price to revisit 0.5710 again, and I am preparing scenarios around that level.

I am planning my next actions based on how price behaves around 0.5710, as I see this level as a key decision point for both buyers and sellers. I believe that if price forms a clear double bottom at this support, long positions will become attractive, and I would personally target a recovery toward 0.5809. I am also prepared for a bearish continuation scenario, where a clean break below 0.5710 would trigger a third wave of selling that could be stronger than the previous two. I am paying close attention to my indicators, as I see the RSI remaining relatively neutral while the MACD continues to display increasing bearish volume without clear signs of exhaustion. I reflect on the broader weekly context and recall how unemployment data strengthened the US dollar, reinforcing the bearish pressure on NZDUSD. I observed that the pair remained trapped in a descending channel for a prolonged period, and I never expected a sustained breakout from that structure. I identified a strong short opportunity near 0.5848 earlier in the week, from which price rapidly declined toward the lower support zone. I now expect additional downside pressure at the market open, particularly if price fails to reclaim the 0.5707–0.5750 region. I would ideally prefer to see price revisit 0.5700, as I believe this level could trigger a sharp reaction due to accumulated liquidity. I noticed that buyers briefly reacted at 0.5706 with a strong bullish pin bar, which confirmed temporary demand. I also observed that price reached its average daily range, further validating the technical rebound. I expect a pullback toward previously broken levels, and I intend to sell again if those levels act as resistance. I remain cautious about medium-term buying and firmly believe that only a break above 0.581–0.582 would justify a bullish shift in my outlook.