FX.co ★ Jackroay | AUD/USD

I acknowledge that a head and shoulders pattern could theoretically form on AUDUSD, but I personally do not consider it reliable at this stage because I observe the US dollar showing broad-based weakness and near-collapse characteristics in the current session. I note that the Australian dollar has not lagged significantly against the greenback and has instead demonstrated resilience and upward movement, which reduces the probability of a clean bearish reversal playing out immediately. I recognize that while several key technical levels remain unbroken, I firmly believe that timing is crucial and that the market often invalidates classical patterns during periods of macro instability. I consider the current political and institutional pressure surrounding the Fed chairman as a serious destabilizing factor, and I believe such conditions tend to weaken the effectiveness of traditional technical setups. I observe that the current bearish candle structure is shallow, and I interpret this as a lack of meaningful selling pressure rather than confirmation of a downward impulse. I identify 0.6735 as the most realistic upside objective in the near term, and I emphasize the importance of reviewing the H1 chart to refine intraday expectations. I see potential for either a local upward correction or even the early development of a short-term bullish trend, and I believe this process could persist despite the relatively young structure of the move. I acknowledge that Monday sessions often lack strong follow-through, and I do not expect fresh highs today, but I anticipate a test of the 0.6735 area tomorrow. I see 0.6731 as a critical overhead level resembling the lower boundary of a protected zone, and I believe the current upward price action may be designed to test this level. I consider that if price reaches this zone and forms a bearish signal from above, the protected zone could begin shifting lower, initiating a corrective move toward deeper liquidity pools.

I analyze the scenario where a decline from 0.6731 could extend toward the volume level around 0.6651, and I believe that from there a renewed northward reaction could occur. I project that such a rebound might target the volume accumulation zone near 0.6694, and I stress the importance of closely monitoring volume behavior and indicator reactions in that region. I believe that if volume analysis confirms a lack of interest from higher levels, price could resume its decline toward the upper boundary of the protected zone at 0.6607. I interpret the order book data as showing increased liquidity below the current price, and I suspect that larger players may be engineering a deceptive upward move to attract late buyers. I believe this tactic could allow price to briefly test a higher level before sharply reversing to absorb liquidity and trap overly optimistic longs. I nonetheless acknowledge that, in the current market context, buying remains the short-term priority, as I see the H4 chart clearly maintaining an uptrend with price positioned above the Ichimoku cloud. I interpret the upward slope of the Stochastic indicator as further confirmation of bullish momentum, and I note that bulls have successfully consolidated above the pivot level near 0.6720. I expect intraday growth to continue toward classical pivot resistance levels, and I believe that a breakout above 0.6747 could trigger a new bullish wave extending toward 0.6808. I also recognize the risk of bearish sentiment returning, and I identify 0.6643 as a key downside target should sellers regain control. I reflect on the daily chart and observe that 2025 was largely range-bound, with a notable breakout in late November and early December that confirmed renewed bullish intent. I remain cautious, however, because I see bearish divergences on MACD and CCI alongside a broken rising wedge, and I therefore keep the long-term downside target near 0.6415 in focus. I conclude by outlining my active trade management, as I entered a buy at 0.6713 on H1, defined a tight stop at 0.6709, planned partial profits at 0.6716 and 0.6719, and intend to trail stops aggressively to protect gains while targeting a final exit near 0.6722.