FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I am reassessing the GBP/USD situation with the understanding that my earlier expectations were modest and, frankly, too optimistic for the actual market behavior. I am acknowledging that I expected my long position to close at take profit before the weekend, and I am recognizing that this assumption did not materialize. I am observing that on the H4 chart, after the downward cycle reached 1.3361, I anticipated a corrective pullback toward 1.3427, but I am clearly seeing that the market followed a different trajectory. I am noting that the pair only managed to form a local high at 1.3411, which is particularly telling given that even EUR/USD managed to climb higher. I am emphasizing that this failure to reach my projected correction level signaled weakness, and I am interpreting the subsequent resumption of the decline as confirmation that bearish pressure remained dominant. I am aware that price briefly revisited the 1.33 structure and appeared to be preparing for a breakout above 1.3361, yet I am also acknowledging that the lower levels delivered partial profit opportunities, reaching 1.3364 before growth resumed. I am stressing that this growth was structurally weak, as it failed to reclaim the 1.34 zone, which left Friday’s close looking uncertain and unresolved. I am consciously deciding to carry this position through the weekend, fully aware of the ambiguity. I am also pointing out that from the opening of Monday’s trading session, I expect GBP/USD on the H1 timeframe to be in oversold territory, and while I am not considering this oversold condition critical yet, I am factoring in the likelihood that bulls may attempt a corrective recovery from these levels.

I am placing particular emphasis on how I intend to approach buying rather than on predicting an immediate outcome, because I believe that execution conditions are more important than forecasts. I am focusing on the intraday volume formed on January 16, which I interpret as a potential catalyst for a renewed bearish impulse. I am considering that this volume could be sufficient to push the price into the 1.32956–1.32786 support zone, and I am viewing this area as technically significant due to the confluence of oversold conditions on the H1 timeframe. I am stating clearly that if the price reaches this zone, I will be looking to buy with the expectation of a corrective rally, targeting the psychologically important 1.34000 level. I am also analyzing the H1 chart and seeing a well-defined downward trend, reinforced by the rejection from the 1.3466 resistance level. I am noting that the break and consolidation below the weekly support at 1.3411 transformed that level into resistance, and I am interpreting the subsequent retest and rejection as a textbook bearish continuation signal. I am aligning this with indicator signals that continue to point lower, and I am projecting a move toward the 1.3313 area, where I see overlapping daily and weekly support factors. I am expecting that any upward movement from there would be corrective rather than trend-changing. I am maintaining a bearish bias overall, targeting lower levels such as 1.3245, while I am remaining patient about pullbacks, particularly noting that only the 1/4 margin zone around 1.3440 would be acceptable later. I am deliberately avoiding premature shorts and unsuitable corrections, because I believe preserving the integrity of the downward structure is essential before any meaningful rebound can occur.