FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

I acknowledge that the rate itself was correct, but I admit that I did not confirm my trading thoughts with live price action in time, and I recognize that this hesitation cost me a better entry. I believe I should have opened sell orders yesterday morning when bearish momentum was clearer and liquidity conditions were more favorable. I remain convinced that the current price is unlikely to hold for long, as I see limited commitment from buyers at these levels. I do not believe buyers have sufficient strength to push and sustain prices toward the psychologically important $60 per barrel mark. I observe that the broader downward trend in black gold remains intact, and I see no reliable technical evidence yet of a confirmed northward reversal. I identify several clear signs pointing to continued southward pressure, including lower highs and weak follow-through on bullish attempts. I see the nearest realistic profit target at 56.40 on OILUSD, which aligns well with prior reaction zones and volume concentration. I note that yesterday buyers were unable to push the price above the previous day’s intraday resistance at 60.21, which reinforces my bearish bias. I also observe that buyers managed to defend the 58.95 support level, and I acknowledge that this defense leaves some room for a potential short-term reversal. I consider that this technical behavior keeps the door open for a corrective move at the start of next week, even if the broader trend remains bearish. I remain cautious, however, because the weekly candle printed a very long upper shadow, which I interpret as a sign of strong selling pressure from higher levels. I suspect that speculators will focus on this wick and attempt to push prices back down toward 58.95 from the weekly open. I therefore expect increased volatility and tactical selling pressure early in the week.

I also recognize that the technical indicators on both the weekly and daily charts are gradually shifting toward a potential northward correction, and I cannot ignore this developing signal. I believe this mixed technical picture makes a sustained trend move less likely in the immediate term. I therefore expect consolidation to dominate price action next week within a broad range between 56.67 and 59.30. I see this range as a battlefield where both buyers and sellers will test each other’s conviction. I identify three distinct waves of decline on the weekly chart that point toward the major monthly support near 55.00. I recall that sellers attempted twice last spring to break decisively below the 55.00 level, and I remember that both attempts failed due to strong buying interest. I suspect that market participants remain reluctant to sell aggressively below 55.00, given its historical significance and psychological weight. I therefore consider it highly probable that once price approaches this zone, selling pressure will weaken noticeably. I anticipate that any rally emerging from that area could be technically justified and potentially strong. I believe that after such a rally, buyers could regain control and begin pushing #CL north in a more sustainable manner. I emphasize, however, that this scenario requires confirmation through price structure, volume expansion, and successful retests of key support levels. I remain disciplined in acknowledging that the market does not owe us certainty. I conclude that patience and confirmation remain essential, and I accept that only time and price action will reveal whether this consolidation resolves lower first or transitions into a broader bullish recovery.