FX.co ★ Konnect2fx | EUR/USD

I am observing that buyers initially attempted to rally the Euro following yesterday’s decline, yet I note that sellers ultimately reversed the trend by the day’s close, securing control. I believe that for sellers to continue this decline, they must now achieve a decisive breakthrough and consolidate below the level of 1.15834. I see that if they are successful in this endeavor, their first tangible target will likely be 1.15544. I anticipate that should they manage to establish a firm hold at that point, the price could then feasibly continue its descent toward the next objective at 1.15460. Conversely, I am considering the scenario for an upward trend, where I understand that buyers would need to orchestrate a clear break and close above the resistance at 1.16268. I expect that accomplishing this would set the first bullish target at 1.16400, and from there, I can envision a path for the price to extend its rise toward 1.16611

Furthermore, I am analyzing the 4-hour chart, where I can see the Euro has rolled back to the central area of the bands after its earlier attempt to follow the lower band. I maintain that to obtain a reliable signal for a sustained price decline, I must patiently wait for a strong touch or interaction with that lower band, after which I will need to assess whether the bands exhibit a convincing outward opening. Regarding the fractal analysis, I observe that the price previously failed to consolidate below the nearest downward fractal upon breakout, so I am concluding that in the current situation, it is prudent to wait for a new, closer downward fractal to form before I can rely on it for confirming a downward trajectory. I also note that the nearest upward fractal is situated quite far from the current price action; therefore, I feel that to gain any substantial leverage for forecasting a price increase, I must await the formation of a fresh, nearer bullish fractal. Simultaneously, I am monitoring the AO indicator, which I see is attempting to build momentum within the negative zone. However, I am of the opinion that to receive a stronger and more convincing signal for a price decline, I need to see a more active and pronounced acceleration of this negative momentum. To that end, I am prepared to wait for a more robust decay toward the zero level, as I believe only such a movement would provide the reliable confirmation I require for entering a short position. I am constantly synthesizing these technical elements, and I find that this comprehensive approach allows me to navigate the market’s volatility with greater discipline and clarity, ensuring I do not act on premature or weak signals.