FX.co ★ blaise.rogahn | USD/CHF

Hello traders, esteemed colleagues at InvestSocial! USD/CHF — correction after an impulsive decline and preparation for a downside breakout 1. Timeframe and context The analysis is conducted on the hourly timeframe (H1), allowing to identify medium-term impulses and liquidity accumulation zones. After a prolonged sideways movement around 0.7780–0.7800, the pair experienced a sharp impulsive drop downwards with a series of long red candles, breaking through local supports. Currently, the price has entered a corrective phase upwards — a classic pause after a strong decline, where liquidity is attracted and zones for further movement are formed. 2. Market structure: Bearish trend Currently, a local bearish trend persists, confirmed by: * Lower highs and lower lows in the overall market structure * Formation of a descending channel, where upward corrections do not reach previous highs * Clear selling pressure on volumes — green candles are weak, with low volume, quickly absorbed All these signs indicate that sellers control the market, and buyers are unable to organize a confident price reversal to higher levels. 3. Liquidity and levels During the impulsive decline and current correction, support levels have formed below, where liquidity has accumulated. These zones serve as key points for analyzing potential movements: * Liquidity gathers at the bottom, signaling a possible downside breakout * These levels temporarily support the price but do not generate enough demand for its rise We expect that approaching these levels will trigger position accumulation and active selling, both in the market and in the order book. 4. Projected movement: Downside breakout An impulsive downside breakout is projected: * With liquidity accumulation near the support level, the market may test the lower boundary * After stop-loss activation and further volatility expansion, the price may continue to decline * We anticipate a continuation of the bearish movement with a possible break below current lows 5. Movement targets (Take Profit) TP1 — 0.7740 * First support zone after the breakout * Opportunity for partial profit-taking TP2 — 0.7720 * Next key liquidity area * Suitable for intermediate profit-taking TP3 — 0.7700 * Final target for the current bearish impulse * Expected range for the completion of the downward wave 6. Risks and scenario cancellation conditions The scenario will be canceled if: * The price consolidates above 0.7780–0.7790, indicating a possible reversal * A new ascending structure forms, overriding the current bearish trend 7. Final conclusion * Trend: bearish * Correction: continuation of the decline with accumulation near levels * Liquidity: concentrated at support, a downside breakout is possible * Targets: reaching levels 0.7740, 0.7720, and 0.7700 An important point — operate within the current bearish trend, adhere to risk management, and take profits as targets are reached. Trade thoughtfully!