FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see the GOLD daily chart as a textbook example of an overstretched but still structurally intact bullish market, and I view the entire three-year rally as a powerful rolling wave that has left almost no room for comfortable positioning. I observe that I am constantly forced to deal with price being near historical highs, and I recognize that this alone makes both psychological and tactical decision-making extremely difficult. I note that I see the MACD firmly in the buy zone and above its signal line, and I acknowledge that this confirms trend dominance rather than timing accuracy. I remember the contracting triangle from early December, and I interpret its upside breakout and prolonged consolidation as a classic accumulation phase dominated by professional players rather than retail enthusiasm. I see that sellers were absorbed gradually, and I interpret the subsequent upward creep as a sign of sustained demand rather than speculative spikes. I recognize that the New Year profit-taking produced a sharp pullback, and I note that the correction respected the 4355 horizontal support area almost perfectly. I also see the ascending trendline acting as dynamic support, and I interpret the inability of price to break below it as proof that bearish pressure is still structurally weak. I acknowledge that the market resembles a “roller,” and I admit that I cannot rationally justify buying near the highs when price spends most of its time there. I also state clearly that I do not see selling blindly against such momentum as a smart approach, even though reversal formations like rising wedges and bearish divergences have appeared. I conclude that these signals have repeatedly failed, and I accept that strong trends routinely invalidate classical reversal patterns. I firmly believe that a deep correction is overdue, and I consider it necessary for market health, liquidity reset, and new seller engagement.

I analyze the recent intraday behavior and see that GOLD once again demonstrated why this market punishes rigid bias, and I admit that both bullish and bearish narratives found short-term validation. I point out that I personally favored selling pullbacks rather than chasing breakouts, and I confirm that the short from 5084 with a stop at 5110 and a take profit at 5053 executed cleanly and precisely. I emphasize that I consider pullback selling to be an effective tactical approach in an overstretched trend, especially when long reliability is questionable. I observe that despite this, the broader rally resumed, and I note that Tuesday closed with a confident bullish candle, pushing price back toward 5180–5190. I see that hourly buy targets were formed using Fibonacci expansion, and I recognize that both the 161.8 level at 5132 and the 261.8 level at 5186 have already been fulfilled. I interpret this fulfillment as confirmation of strong intraday demand rather than exhaustion. I identify the next extension at the 423.6 Fibonacci level near 5273, and I accept that such a target is technically valid within the current impulse structure. I still expect, however, a corrective dip toward the 5132 area, and I see this as a necessary pause rather than a trend reversal. I anticipate that such a pullback could trigger renewed buying and eventually lead to another attempt at fresh highs around 5192 and beyond. I remain skeptical about sustainability, and I openly state that I currently find gold unsuitable for comfortable business trading. I conclude that until volatility normalizes or price enters a prolonged range, I prefer tactical shorts and patience over emotional participation in a market that is stretched to its absolute limits.