FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I see EUR/USD still moving within a local downward structure after printing fresh lows on Friday, yet I also recognize that the breakout below 1.1775 failed to gain acceptance and turned into a false breakout that left sellers without confirmation. I notice that price action is currently trapped between 1.1775 and 1.1825, forming a range that reflects hesitation rather than direction. I interpret the bullish close on Friday as a sign that buyers are not ready to surrender control despite the broader pressure. I observe that the current price around 1.1859 sits near important intraday Fibonacci targets that were formed on the hourly chart. I consider the 161.8 level at 1.1855 as the first realistic magnet for price, followed by 1.1911 at the 261.8 extension and ultimately the psychological 1.2000 near the 423.6 extension. I plan to react if price confidently breaks above Friday’s high at 1.1826 because I want to participate in the upward momentum rather than anticipate it too early. I remember historical behavior on the left side of the chart where price broke a local high, dropped for a test, and then resumed its climb, and I see similarities developing now. I admit that the southern trend is visible, but I believe the market is preparing for another return to higher levels before any deeper decline. I focus strongly on the 1.1791–1.1781 zone as a key support where I expect sellers to lose strength if the level holds.

I understand that Monday’s session can bring either continuation toward 1.1845, 1.1894, and 1.1951 or simple sideways consolidation between 1.184 and 1.176. I refuse to consider selling aggressively below 1.186–1.187 because I still interpret the structure as upward with corrective pullbacks rather than a true reversal. I accept that dollar demand and recent negative U.S. data can influence volatility and create false moves inside the range. I recognize that the CME-implied range for the week suggests expansion and the potential for a breakout that will not be limited by last week’s boundaries. I acknowledge that market participants are in a constant struggle that creates indecision and noisy price action. I remain patient because I know that early Monday movements often lack commitment and can trap traders. I identify 1.1855 as a strong resistance area where I am willing to consider short positions if price reacts weakly. I limit my intraday downside target to 1.1802 because I prefer controlled objectives instead of chasing extended moves. I plan to trade based on reaction rather than placing blind pending orders in a slow market open. I stay flexible because I understand that both buyers and sellers still have arguments inside this range.