FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see gold as a market where the real risk lately has not been in price action but in my own hesitation, because since Friday morning I had the instrument in sight and still did not dare to buy while the bears never truly appeared and the entire session unfolded under what looked like a bullish flag. I interpret this as a lesson in perception, because when I look back, I struggle to identify any objective technical reason that would have justified fear of buying, and I realize that my expectations were simply too mixed to allow decisive action. I currently observe a clash of scenarios in my head, where I imagine anything from a bullish three-wave continuation to a deep return toward 4650 or even 4400, and I understand that this lack of clarity creates internal noise rather than market noise. I ask myself whether I would have closed longs on Friday if I had opened them, and I admit that if expectations were already satisfied for bulls, then a temporary southern move would be logical to rebalance positions. I also consider that external factors for the coming week could inject volatility, yet I do not see anything globally dramatic enough to cause an opening shock for gold. I remember how Asian trading on Friday dropped price sharply toward 4655, and I note how quickly that decline was absorbed and bought back, which tells me that demand still sits below the market and that daily charts continue to show absorption rather than distribution.

I analyze the broader structure and I recognize that gold, after falling from the all-time high at 5600, has shaped what looks like a triangle where the upper boundary is flat and the lower boundary is rising, and I interpret this as gradual weakening of sellers rather than strengthening of them. I focus on the 4975 level as a technical trigger, because I believe that a breakout above this horizontal ceiling would reopen the path toward 5600 and possibly beyond, especially if price accelerates through the 5000–5100 zone without hesitation. I still keep in mind an alternative bearish scenario where a breakdown through the lower boundary could push price toward 4000, but I do not prioritize this outcome because I currently see more evidence of continued upward pressure than of collapse. I plan for short-term southern moves toward 4600 as opportunities rather than as trend reversals, and I treat any dip toward 4765 as a potential buying area if absorption reappears. I accept that contract volume and the prevailing northward trend argue against aggressive selling for now, and I conclude that although short-term pullbacks are possible, the dominant structure still favors growth unless the triangle fails decisively.