FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

On the H4 chart of #CL (OILUSD), I see that price action remains technically constructive despite the recent hesitation around the 67.00 area. I note that yesterday’s push to 67.09, clearly exceeding the previous high of 66.88, confirms that buyers are still willing to challenge overhead supply. I interpret the subsequent decline as a controlled pullback rather than a structural reversal, especially since the main direction on H1 remains bullish in my view. I observe that the earlier pressure, which dominated into the weekly close, failed to produce a decisive breakdown, and I recognize that the rebound from 65.87 signals that buyers are still defending higher lows. I believe that as long as price holds above the 65.23–65.50 breakout zone, I must treat the recent dip as corrective. I see the 68.00 level as the first real test of bullish continuation, and I think that a clean break and consolidation above it would open the way toward 69.23 and potentially 70.44 sooner than many expect. I also acknowledge that on H4, the temporary breakout of the corridor without strong continuation raises caution, and I accept that a false breakout scenario could trigger a deeper retracement toward the 62.00–60.00 region. However, I remain focused on structure, and I remind myself that the earlier breakout above 60.49, followed by consolidation, already shifted the medium-term bias upward. I see on D1 that the break above 66.40 strengthens the bullish narrative, and I consider 70.00 a logical magnet level, with 75.00 and even 77.64 as extended wave targets if momentum accelerates. I treat any downward move at this stage as a corrective wave within a broader upward sequence unless price decisively reclaims lower support zones.

From a fundamental and sentiment perspective, I recognize that geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are amplifying risk premiums in crude oil, and I understand that even the anticipation of supply disruption in the Persian Gulf can sustain upward pressure. I acknowledge that market participants are pricing in uncertainty, and I believe that this explains the steady, measured climb rather than an explosive rally. I admit that I am cautious about chasing price at current levels, even though moving averages on H4 are aligned bullishly and price is trading confidently above 65.23. I think that a move toward 69.23 is technically justified if momentum persists, but I also remain aware that if price slips below the red moving average on H4, I would have to reassess the bullish scenario. I consider the 68.00 zone psychologically important, and I believe that sustained acceptance above it would reinforce buyer control. I also understand that if a renewed pullback develops and sellers manage to invalidate the breakout structure, I could see a slide first toward support and then potentially toward 60.00 if bearish pressure intensifies. Nevertheless, I observe that the recent decline lacked impulsive strength, and I interpret the near-complete recovery of that drop as evidence that bulls have not fully exhausted themselves. I think that in the short term, even speculation of escalation could drive price back to 67.00 or slightly above, and I accept that an actual strike scenario could rapidly push oil toward 70.00. I conclude that while volatility risk is elevated, I still see the broader technical structure favoring continuation to the upside unless key support levels are decisively broken.