FX.co ★ HNB | XAU/USD, GOLD

The precious metals market has experienced a significant resurgence as gold prices climb in response to a surge in safe-haven demand, though this upward trajectory faces a complex intersection of geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. While gold typically thrives during periods of instability, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has concurrently propelled crude oil prices higher, reigniting fears of "sticky" inflation. These inflationary concerns are dampening market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, creating a scenario where gold might actually record its first weekly decline in over a month despite the chaos. Currently, gold denominated in U.S. dollars maintains a bullish posture, aided by a relatively soft greenback. however, this dynamic remains fragile; should inflation remain stubbornly above the Federal Reserves target, policymakers may reconsider raising interest rates, a move that would likely resuscitate the dollar and pressure non-yielding assets like bullion. Despite this, the current dollar weakness continues to lower the barrier to entry for international buyers holding other currencies, providing a steady floor for global demand. The geopolitical landscape has darkened considerably as the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its seventh day of intense escalation. Market nerves were rattled on Thursday following reports that Iran launched a coordinated strike of missiles and drones toward the Gulf region, specifically targeting an oil refinery in Bahrain. In a rapid series of escalations, Israel has sustained its aerial campaign against Tehran, while the United States has taken the precautionary step of suspending operations at its embassy in Kuwait. The rhetoric from leadership suggests a narrowing path for diplomacy; while President Donald Trump claimed Iranian officials attempted to initiate dialogue for a peace agreement, he dismissed the overtures as "too late," signaling a hardline stance focused on the degradation of Iranian capabilities. This was met with a defiant response from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who stated that Tehran is not seeking a ceasefire, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned of even more severe retaliatory strikes in the near future. In the background of these military tensions, traders are laser-focused on upcoming U.S. economic indicators to gauge the Federal Reserves next move. The spotlight is on the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with consensus estimates hovering around a modest 59,000 jobs—a sharp cooling from January’s robust 130,000. Additionally, January retail sales are projected to contract by 0.3%, suggesting a potential softening in consumer spending. Adding to the volatility is the shift in U.S. trade policy, as the administration implements a temporary 15% global tariff this week. This new measure replaces a previous 10% levy that was enacted following a Supreme Court ruling against earlier trade restrictions. Scott Besant has indicated that these figures are fluid, with the potential for further adjustments within five months as new trade investigations reach their conclusions, adding another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook. From a technical perspective, gold (XAU/USD) remains fundamentally in an uptrend as long as it stays above the $5,100 psychological level, currently trading near $5,110. The daily chart reveals that the metal is navigating within a well-defined ascending channel, maintaining its position above the bullish 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Although the 9-day EMA is flattening out, suggesting a slight ebb in short-term momentum, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds steady at 53, confirming that buying pressure still outweighs selling interest. The immediate challenge for bulls is a breakout above the 9-day EMA resistance at $5,134. Successfully clearing this hurdle could pave the way for a run toward the upper boundary of the channel at $5,480, potentially putting the historic high of $5,598 within reach. On the flip side, the primary support level sits at the lower channel trend line of $5,080; a decisive break below this floor could trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-day moving average near $4,883.