FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see that the current discussion around XAU/USD revolves around whether buyers are beginning to lose control, and I personally find the situation quite interesting because the market behavior still suggests strong bullish pressure. I notice that the current quote is around 5184, and I interpret this level as being close to the lower region of the active trading structure but still within the broader bullish framework. I analyze the daily chart using wave-based techniques, and I observe that the MA100 continues to trend upward with an approximate angle of 20 degrees, which I consider a clear sign that the medium-term trend still favors buyers. I also believe that this steady slope of the MA100 reflects a stable intraday sentiment that continues to support buying interest across the market. I further notice that the MA18 has successfully crossed the MA100 from below to above, and I interpret this formation as a classic golden cross that usually signals the strengthening of bullish momentum. I see that the final segment of the MA18 is still pointing north with a sharper angle near 30 degrees, and I consider this an indication that short-term momentum remains clearly in favor of buyers. I also examine the Ichimoku Cloud structure, and I observe that the cloud remains bullish while trending upward, which I interpret as confirmation that the market is currently developing within the early phase of a bullish wave cycle. I believe that if this wave structure continues to evolve normally, the market could move through the second and third bullish waves before any serious correction appears. I also notice that both basement indicator pairs are currently showing strong overbought conditions, and although I recognize that such levels can sometimes lead to corrections, I do not yet see any clear sell signals that would justify aggressive short positions. I therefore conclude that the bearish side still lacks sufficient momentum to fully enter the market at this stage. I also observe that the price is currently moving inside an ascending channel bounded roughly between 5140 and 5333, and I believe that as long as the price remains inside this structure, the broader bullish scenario continues to dominate despite temporary pauses or consolidations.

I observe that Tuesday’s trading session for this asset closed with a clearly bullish candlestick, and I interpret this as a sign that buyers were able to regain some control of the market by the end of the day. I note that the current price is trading around 5207, and I consider this level important because I see several Fibonacci-based targets forming on the hourly chart that could guide the next movement. I see the first upside objective at the 161.8 Fibonacci expansion level around 5266, and I believe this level is often the most realistic short-term target because I frequently notice that markets tend to reach the first expansion level before showing any meaningful hesitation. I also recognize that the second potential target is located at the 261.8 Fibonacci level near 5429, and I understand that reaching this area would likely require stronger bullish momentum and sustained buying pressure. I also identify a third and more extended target at the 423.6 Fibonacci expansion near 5687, and I view this as a scenario that could develop only if the bullish trend accelerates significantly and if the market sentiment remains strongly positive. At the same time, I notice a very interesting technical situation developing on the chart, and I believe it deserves careful attention. I see that the level around 5222 represents a potential test of a downward breakout area, and I think that if the price moves toward this zone and forms a clear reversal pattern, the market could quickly shift direction. I believe that such a reversal could push the price downward toward the current day’s low near 5185, and I think that a break below this level would signal that sellers are regaining control of the market. I also expect that if 5185 fails to hold as support, the decline could extend further toward 5152, which I see as the next key downside level. I therefore prefer to remain patient for now, and I plan to watch how the price reacts around these critical levels before making any trading decisions today.