FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAG/USD, SILVER

I traditionally prefer to analyze silver on the weekly timeframe over the weekend because I believe the W-chart provides a clearer view of the broader market structure and helps me better understand the dominant trend that may guide price action during the upcoming trading week. I observe that the two most recent outer candles on the weekly chart have started to take on a noticeably bearish tone, and I interpret this as an early signal that the previously strong bullish momentum may be weakening. I think this development is particularly important because the market has experienced a prolonged period of buyer dominance, during which bullish pressure consistently pushed prices higher, so even the appearance of moderate bearish behavior now represents a meaningful shift in sentiment. I believe that after such an extended rally, it is quite natural for the market to begin slowing down and allowing sellers to gradually regain some influence over the price dynamics. I also recognize that the emergence of bearish weekly candles does not necessarily guarantee a strong and immediate downward movement, but I do believe it reflects that sellers are finally managing to reduce the aggressive activity of buyers that previously dominated the market. I think this change in balance between buyers and sellers could open the door for additional downside pressure in the near term if bearish momentum continues to build. I also consider the possibility that the market may attempt a temporary northward correction, because after strong trends it is common for price to test higher levels again before deciding on a clearer direction. However, I personally believe that even if such an upward attempt occurs, traders holding long positions may face serious difficulties pushing the price beyond the important 95.00 level on XAGUSD. I see this level as a significant barrier that could attract selling interest, especially if broader market conditions remain unfavorable for metals. I therefore think that while small bullish corrections may appear, the overall structure suggests that maintaining sustained growth above 95.00 will be a very challenging task for buyers in the current environment.

I believe that despite many traders being tempted to buy silver around the current area, I personally remain very cautious about considering any long positions because I think it is important not to analyze a level in isolation but to evaluate the broader market context as well. I observe that the overall environment is not supportive for bullish positions in metals at the moment, and I see that precious metals in general have been declining while the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen rapidly, which in my view significantly reduces the probability that the 80.50 level will act as a reliable support capable of producing another strong rebound. I think many traders might be focusing too heavily on the historical significance of the level, but I believe the current macro momentum is pointing downward, which makes me skeptical that the level will hold in the same way it may have done previously. I expect that the market could potentially open with a continuation of the southerly movement that dominated last week, and although I am not necessarily anticipating a dramatic or uncontrolled collapse, I do believe that a steady and moderate decline remains a very realistic scenario for the coming sessions. I also pay close attention to the H4 chart structure, and I personally do not see any convincing signals that would suggest the beginning of a bullish reaction at the current price zone. I notice that instead of strong buying pressure, the price is merely stalling near the level, and I do not interpret this as a meaningful consolidation because I see that the second candle in this area is very small and lacks the kind of structure that would normally indicate accumulation by buyers. I believe that in order to even start discussing the possibility of support formation, I would need to see at least four or five consecutive closes in this region that demonstrate stability and demand. I also observe that silver is currently trading comfortably below the moving average after recently bouncing downward from it, and I interpret that rejection as confirmation that bearish pressure remains dominant in the short term. I therefore think that the downward momentum could gradually continue throughout the week, and based on the current technical structure I am setting my weekly downside target near the 75 level, which I believe the market could realistically reach if the present trend remains intact.