FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I am analyzing the GBP/USD pair this evening and I acknowledge that my previous forecast did not unfold as expected, since I initially anticipated a moderate rise only up to the 1.33111 level followed by a decline. I am recognizing that the market behaved very differently, as the Asian session opened with a strong bullish momentum that pushed the price upward by more than 2,000 pips, which clearly invalidated my earlier scenario. I am admitting that my planned buy entry was not positioned high enough to capture this move, and I see this as a lesson in how rapidly sentiment can shift, especially during low-liquidity sessions like Asia. I am currently observing that the price structure still appears bullish, and I am considering the possibility that the market could continue rising toward the 1.34840 level if momentum remains intact. I am evaluating the current trend and I see that buyers are still in control in the short term, even though I personally would prefer to see a bearish reversal develop. I am holding onto the idea that, in the broader perspective, the pair could eventually move lower toward my long-standing downside target at 1.30056, but I understand that such a move is unlikely to happen immediately or within just one or two trading days. I am carefully watching the sentiment data, and I note that the current seller-to-buyer ratio stands at 57 percent selling and 43 percent buying, which suggests that a majority of traders are positioned for a decline. I am aware that this imbalance can sometimes act as a contrarian signal, potentially supporting further upside before any meaningful drop occurs. I am keeping my buy order active because I still see short-term bullish potential, but I am also preparing mentally for a possible shift in direction if resistance levels begin to hold. I am maintaining flexibility in my strategy, and I am continuously reassessing market structure, momentum, and key levels to adapt to evolving conditions while managing risk carefully.

I am observing that the GBP/USD pair has started to retreat below the key level of 1.34200, which aligns with my earlier expectations for today’s price behavior. I believe that after strong news-driven rallies, the market typically corrects itself with a slower and less aggressive pullback compared to the initial upward movement, and I see this same pattern repeating once again. I am noticing that this price zone has been tested multiple times, and I recognize that this is now the fourth bounce from this area, which makes it technically significant in my analysis. I find it particularly interesting that during this attempt, the price managed to produce a false breakout above the established zone, which in my view signals potential weakness among buyers and increases the probability of a bearish continuation. I am considering that such false breakouts often trap buyers and provide liquidity for sellers to push the market lower, and I think this scenario is currently unfolding. I am focusing closely on the Asian session because I expect lower volatility but steady directional movement, and I anticipate that the price could drift down toward the 1.33250 level. I see this level as my primary downside target for tomorrow, and I believe there is a realistic chance that the market could test it by the morning if bearish pressure continues to build. I am maintaining a bearish bias overall, and I am prioritizing selling opportunities as long as the market remains below key resistance. I am also planning my risk management carefully, and I will cancel my sell positions only if I observe a strong and confident consolidation above the 1.34400 level. I am paying attention to the fact that buyers have not yet demonstrated the strength required to reclaim and hold above that level, which reinforces my bearish outlook. I am continuing to monitor price action closely, and I remain confident that the current structure favors further downside movement unless a clear shift in momentum occurs.