FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CAD

I observe that the recent decline in USD/CAD was quite sharp, but I do not interpret it as a reflection of inherent strength in the Canadian dollar, rather I see it as a reaction driven largely by broader market sentiment affecting the US dollar. I believe that external commentary, particularly unexpected political remarks, created uncertainty and triggered a wave of USD selling across the market, and I recognize that USD/CAD simply followed this momentum rather than initiating an independent technical move. I analyze the H4 chart and note that the current price around 1.3848 reflects a market that has paused after a decline, which suggests to me that bearish momentum may be weakening. I identify the southward zigzag structure and I calculate that the Fibonacci extension target near 1.3804 was a logical downside objective, yet I notice that price failed to reach that level, which I interpret as a sign of insufficient bearish strength. I see that the pair was unable to break below the 1.3830 area, and I consider this failure to continue downward as an early indication of potential reversal or at least a temporary floor. I was initially expecting the market to complete its downside targets, but I adjusted my outlook when I observed the lack of follow-through selling pressure. I anticipated a rebound toward the 1.39 level, and based on that expectation, I decided to enter a buy position below 1.3859. I understand that this entry reflects a counter-move against the immediate bearish impulse, but I justify it by the incomplete target structure and the emergence of consolidation. I continue to monitor the price behavior closely, as I want to see confirmation that buyers are stepping in with enough strength to push the pair higher. I remain focused on the 1.39 target as my primary objective, and I acknowledge that reaching this level would validate my analysis of a corrective upward move following the premature end of the bearish leg.

I observe that the most critical aspect of the current market structure is the expectation of a move occurring immediately after a pullback, which suggests that timing and confirmation will be essential for decision-making. I note that the current USD/CAD price around 1.3837 reflects a market that is still holding relatively high despite emerging bearish signals, and I interpret this as a sign of temporary strength rather than a confirmed reversal. I see on the daily chart that the MA100 has started to tilt downward slightly, and I understand this gradual angle as an early indication that bearish pressure is beginning to build in the broader trend. I also recognize that the MA18 recently formed a golden cross by moving above a key moving average, and I interpret this as a lagging bullish signal that still supports price stability in the short term. I notice that price action continues to remain above all major moving averages and even above the Ichimoku Cloud, and I take this as evidence that bulls have not fully lost control yet. I recall that the price tested the MA18 level at 1.3820 but failed to break below it, and I consider this level to be a critical short-term support that must be broken for bearish confirmation. I observe that the Ichimoku Cloud remains strongly bullish with a steep upward angle, and I interpret this as a sign that any bearish movement may initially face strong resistance. I analyze the MACD and see that it has completed a bullish wave and is approaching a potential bearish crossover, and I consider this a warning signal rather than confirmation. I also evaluate the stochastic indicator and recognize that it is issuing a sell signal after completing multiple bullish cycles, which strengthens the bearish argument. I conclude that despite bullish structural support, I should wait for a confirmed consolidation below 1.3820 before considering stronger bearish positions, as premature entry could be risky.