FX.co ★ Der | EUR/USD

The EUR/USD daily chart currently presents a masterclass in trend transition, moving from a multi-month bullish accumulation phase into a structural bearish regime that is now undergoing a critical corrective test. Between early December 2025 and late January 2026, the pair operated within a textbook ascending channel, characterized by persistent higher highs and higher lows that eventually reached a climactic peak of 1.2075. This peak, characterized by exhaustive bullish candles with prominent upper wicks, signaled the end of the "peace dividend" momentum and initiated a sharp reversal in market sentiment. The subsequent breakdown below the channel in February triggered a textbook support/resistance flip; the former baseline at 1.1820 transitioned into a formidable ceiling, as evidenced by multiple rejection wicks that confirmed institutional selling pressure. This bearish impulse accelerated into March, driving the pair toward a historical demand zone at 1.1395, which coincided with the lower Bollinger Band and served as the terminal point for the primary downward wave. Since mid-March, the pair has transitioned into a phase of high-tension consolidation between 1.1480 and 1.1650. While the daily candles originally contracted within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, the flattening of moving averages suggests that the bearish momentum has successfully been absorbed by buyers at these deeper discount levels. The recent push toward the 1.1688–1.1700 resistance zone represents a pivotal moment in this corrective recovery. This area is reinforced by a heavy technical confluence: it aligns with the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci retracement cluster of the entire January-to-March decline. Specifically, the 1.1735 mark (the 50% retracement) and the psychological 1.1700 level are acting as a dual-layered barrier. Recent price action into this zone resulted in a daily bullish candle with a notable upper wick, suggesting that while buyers are testing the mid-range resistance, sellers remain active at these higher Fibonacci tiers. On the four-hour (H4) timeframe, a more optimistic internal structure is emerging. Since March 18, the pair has carved a sequence of higher lows, forming a short-term ascending channel that contrasts with the broader daily bearish bias. The 1.1565 zone has solidified as near-term support, bolstered by H4 moving averages that are now sloping upward. This "fractal" conflict—bullish on the H4 but bearish-to-neutral on the Daily—places the market at an inflection point. A decisive daily close above the 1.1700 handle would signify a successful support/resistance flip, likely clearing the path for an extension toward the 61.8% "Golden Ratio" retracement at 1.1815, closely followed by the major structural ceiling at 1.1820. Fundamentally, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD remains tethered to the shifting sands of US Dollar sentiment and the outcome of the ongoing Islamabad peace talks. While softer US economic data could provide the fuel for a continuation higher, renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve regarding "energy-driven" inflation would likely catalyze a rejection at the 1.1700 barrier. If the pair fails to sustain a foothold above 1.1650, a retest of the 1.1565 and 1.1480 support levels becomes the high-probability scenario. A breach of the 1.1480 floor would effectively terminate the recovery phase and reinstate the primary bearish impulse targeting the March lows. Traders must now monitor the 1.1688–1.1700 zone with extreme vigilance; acceptance above this level would redefine the market structure as bullish in the medium term, while a rejection here would confirm that the bears still control the broader narrative.