FX.co ★ Sud | EUR/USD

The Eurozone Resurgence: EUR/USD Navigates the 1.1751 Neckline as the "V-Shaped" Recovery Solidifies The EUR/USD daily chart from mid-December 2025 through April 2026 chronicles a sophisticated market cycle, transitioning from a climactic 1.2075 distribution phase into a structural "V-shaped" recovery. The pair’s journey began with a parabolic impulse in mid-January, fueled by a high-conviction breakout above the 1.1730 pivot. This bullish expansion, characterized by large-bodied candles and expanded upper Bollinger Bands, reached its zenith at 1.2075 on January 22. This peak proved to be the cycles definitive exhaustion point, marked by a prominent upper wick that signaled a transition from accumulation to an aggressive distribution regime. As the 1.1820 support eventually crumbled in late February, the pair entered a bearish spiral, cascading through the 1.1650 and 1.1565 liquidity pockets before finding a foundational floor at the 1.1395 capitulation low on March 13. The Rounded Bottom and the Structural Pivot: The transition from the March capitulation to the current April recovery represents a textbook example of a structural trend shift. The Basing Phase: Between March 13 and March 31, EUR/USD forged a resilient rounded bottom. This phase was technically vital as it allowed for the absorption of residual selling pressure, while the Bollinger Bands compressed to reflect extreme volatility contraction. The Support/Resistance Flip: The early April breakout above 1.1565 served as the first formal confirmation of a trend change. This move flipped a former resistance ceiling into a foundational demand floor, allowing the moving averages (MAs) to flatten and begin their bullish crossover sequence. Technical Trend Architecture: The 1.1751 Neckline and MA Stack From a structural perspective, the EUR/USD is currently testing a "make-or-break" inflection zone that will define its trajectory for the second quarter. The Neckline Battle: The pair is currently grappling with the 1.1751 horizontal resistance. This level is of paramount importance as it represents the original breakdown point from the February 25 distribution phase. A sustained daily close above this neckline would officially complete the basing pattern and validate a new bullish impulse wave. The "Golden Stack": The moving averages are now positively aligned, sloping upward to provide a web of dynamic support. This "bullish stack" confirms that the recovery is not merely a corrective bounce but a sustained shift in market participation. Strategic Support Floors and Extension Targets: As the market navigates the 1.1751 resistance, the technical roadmap identifies clear defensive guardrails and expansion objectives: Immediate Support (1.1650): This level acts as the primary confluence of moving average support and the April breakout point. For the bullish thesis to remain dominant, buyers must defend this handle on any intraday pullbacks. The Defensive Anchor (1.1565): Should the 1.1650 floor fail, the 1.1565 zone remains the ultimate line of defense. A daily close beneath this mark would damage the recovery structure and risk a retest of the 1.1395 lows. The Bullish Objective (1.1820 – 1.2075): Acceptance above 1.1751 clears the technical pathway for a run toward the 1.1820 resistance. Beyond that, the pair faces historical supply zones at 1.1905 and 1.1990, with the cycle high of 1.2075 serving as the long-term target. The overall technical analysis indicates a daily timeframe that has successfully transitioned from a bearish regime to a burgeoning neutral-bullish expansion. With Bollinger Bands beginning to expand to the upside, the current trend structure favors a continuation of the recovery, provided the 1.1650 handle is protected.