FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | XAU/USD, GOLD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the Gold(XAU/USD) Gold prices are trading near 4,630 during Thursday’s session, attempting to stabilize after rebounding from recent monthly lows around 4,510. Despite the short-term recovery, the precious metal continues to face pressure from renewed strength in the U.S. dollar (USD) and rising market caution tied to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. XAU/USD remains in a corrective recovery phase following its recent sharp decline from the 4,700–4,800 region. On the H4 timeframe, a strong demand zone has developed between 4,580 and 4,610, where buyers aggressively entered the market during the late-April selloff. This support region successfully halted the bearish momentum and triggered the current rebound. The importance of this area is reinforced by the positioning of the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently aligns with the same zone and serves as dynamic support for the broader bullish structure. However, upward momentum remains limited due to strong resistance overhead. The 20-period SMA on the H4 chart, positioned around 4,650–4,670, is currently acting as dynamic resistance. Price action has struggled to reclaim this moving average, indicating that sellers remain active near higher levels. A decisive close above the 20-SMA would likely strengthen bullish momentum and confirm that the recent recovery is gaining traction. In such a scenario, gold could target the next major resistance levels near 4,700, followed by the broader 4,750–4,800 supply zone, where previous rallies faced significant selling pressure. On the H1 timeframe, short-term supply and demand dynamics provide additional insight into current market behavior. A clear intraday supply zone has formed between 4,650 and 4,670, where repeated rejection candles and failed breakout attempts show that sellers continue defending this resistance area aggressively. Meanwhile, fresh intraday demand has emerged near 4,590–4,610, coinciding with the recent rebound low and the H1 50-SMA, creating a strong support cluster for short-term buyers. The 20-SMA on H1 is currently trading close to the market price and functioning as immediate dynamic support during minor pullbacks. As long as price action remains above this fast-moving average, short-term bullish momentum remains intact. However, if the 20-SMA crosses below the 50-SMA on H1, it would indicate weakening momentum and increase the probability of a deeper corrective move toward lower support zones. Key support for gold remains concentrated within the 4,590–4,610 confluence area, supported by both H4 and H1 demand structures alongside the 50-SMA alignment. A breakdown below this region would expose the next major support floor near 4,550–4,570, which could become the next target if bearish pressure intensifies. On the upside, the 4,650–4,670 resistance zone remains the primary obstacle preventing stronger bullish continuation. A successful breakout above this area with sustained momentum could trigger another rally toward 4,700 and potentially the broader 4,750–4,800 resistance region. The technical structure remains cautiously bullish while gold trades above the 50-SMA on both H1 and H4 charts, although the inability to clear nearby resistance keeps the market vulnerable to renewed downside pressure. Gold is being influenced by a combination of geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and U.S. dollar strength. The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the United States continues to dominate market sentiment. Reports indicate that the U.S. plans to maintain its maritime blockade targeting Iranian-linked shipping routes until a new nuclear agreement is reached with Tehran. In response, Iran has warned of “unprecedented military action,” raising fears of further escalation across the region. Additional reports suggesting that U.S. Central Command (CentCom) is preparing contingency plans for potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure have further intensified geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, rising tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel the rally in global oil prices, increasing concerns about inflation and global economic stability. Normally, geopolitical risks support gold through safe-haven demand. However, in the current environment, investors are favoring the U.S. dollar instead, as the greenback remains the dominant global reserve currency during periods of heightened uncertainty. This stronger dollar is limiting gold’s upside potential because gold prices typically move inversely to USD strength.