FX.co ★ Blackpink | EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Holds Above 1.1700 as Hawkish ECB Tone Supports Bulls, but Oil Risks Keep Upside Capped EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1720–1.1740 region on the H4 chart, holding most of its recent recovery after a strong rebound from the 1.1660 area. The pair has not fully broken into a fresh bullish extension yet, but the structure has improved compared with the earlier weakness. Buyers stepped in aggressively near the lower support zone and pushed price back above the moving average cluster, which now gives the euro a more constructive short-term tone. Still, the market is not moving freely. The pair remains trapped inside a broader range, with 1.1750 acting as the main ceiling and 1.1650–1.1675 continuing to protect the downside. Technically, the latest rise has been clean but slightly cautious. Price is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1725, while the 38.2% and 50% levels below now act as pullback supports around 1.1713 and 1.1700. That 1.1700 area is important because it lines up with the moving averages and the previous breakout zone. As long as EUR/USD remains above this region, the short-term bias stays positive. A break below it would not immediately destroy the recovery, but it would weaken momentum and bring 1.1685 and 1.1660 back into focus. The upside test is clear. Bulls need to clear 1.1750 with a strong H4 close to confirm that this is more than just a recovery inside a range. If that happens, the pair could move toward 1.1790, followed by the broader April peak area near 1.1850. But if price keeps failing below 1.1750, traders may start treating this zone as another rejection area. That would keep EUR/USD stuck between support and resistance rather than shifting into a stronger trend. Indicators are leaning positive, though not with full conviction. RSI is around 59, showing that buyers have regained control without pushing the market into overbought territory. MACD is above the zero line, but the histogram looks modest rather than explosive, which suggests bullish momentum is present but not aggressive. Stochastic is already near the upper zone, so a short-term pause or minor pullback would not be surprising. In simple terms, the chart supports buyers, but it still needs a stronger breakout to attract fresh momentum. Fundamentally, the euro is getting support from the ECB’s hawkish tone. The central bank kept rates unchanged at 2%, as expected, but Christine Lagarde’s message was firm enough to keep traders interested in the euro. Her comments reduced fears of stagflation and confirmed that a rate hike was discussed, leaving the door open for a possible June move. That matters because the market had already reacted positively to hotter Eurozone inflation figures, even though weak GDP data created some concern. For now, inflation pressure is carrying more weight than growth weakness. The dollar side is softer because risk appetite remains healthy, especially after Wall Street pushed to fresh record highs on strong corporate earnings. That reduces demand for the safe-haven US Dollar and gives EUR/USD room to hold higher levels. However, the Middle East situation is still a major risk. The US-Iran standoff, the continued Strait of Hormuz blockade, and Brent crude above $100 create a serious long-term problem for the Eurozone, which depends heavily on imported energy. If oil remains elevated, inflation may stay sticky, but growth pressure could also increase. That is the uncomfortable mix traders cannot ignore. Overall, EUR/USD is mildly bullish in the short term while price holds above 1.1700, but the pair is not free from risk. A breakout above 1.1750 would strengthen the bullish case and expose 1.1790, while a drop below 1.1675 would shift attention back toward 1.1645 and possibly 1.1580. For now, the euro has technical support and ECB backing, but oil-driven macro pressure means buyers still need confirmation before the next leg higher looks reliable.