FX.co ★ Blackpink | AUD/USD

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Tests 0.7208 Highs as RBA Hike Expectations and Soft Dollar Keep Bulls in Control AUD/USD is holding firm near the 0.7208 region on the daily chart, and the price action suggests a market that is not just recovering, but steadily building a bullish structure. After forming a base near the 0.6850–0.6900 area in late March, the pair has printed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, which is the clearest sign that buyers are in control. The latest candles are pressing into the 0.7200–0.7220 resistance zone, a level that has historically acted as a cap, making this a key decision area for the next directional move. Technically, the trend is clean and supported by structure. Price is trading comfortably above the main moving average cluster, and those averages are now sloping upward, acting as dynamic support rather than resistance. The short-term moving average is sitting near 0.7150–0.7160, and every dip toward that region has been bought so far. This tells us that buyers are not waiting for deep corrections — they are stepping in early, which is typical in a healthy uptrend. The key resistance sits at 0.7200–0.7220. A strong daily close above this zone would confirm a breakout and could open the door toward 0.7250 and possibly 0.7280 in extension. However, if the pair fails to break cleanly above this level, we could see a short-term pullback or consolidation. On the downside, immediate support is near 0.7160, followed by 0.7120. A break below 0.7120 would weaken the bullish structure and could shift focus back toward 0.7050, but for now, that scenario looks less likely. Momentum indicators support the bullish bias, although they also hint at a slowing pace. RSI is near 61, which reflects solid upward momentum without being overbought. MACD remains in positive territory, though the histogram is starting to flatten, suggesting that while buyers are still in control, the trend is not accelerating aggressively. Stochastic is near the upper zone, which often precedes a pause or minor pullback, but not necessarily a reversal in a trending market. Fundamentally, the Australian Dollar is benefiting from expectations around the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are widely pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike, which would push the policy rate to 4.35%. This expectation is being driven by persistent inflation pressures, with CPI still running well above target. Traders are also watching Governor Michele Bullock’s upcoming comments, as any hawkish tone could reinforce the current bullish momentum in AUD/USD. At the same time, the US Dollar is not providing strong resistance. Despite geopolitical tensions that would normally support safe-haven demand, the dollar has struggled to gain traction. Markets are leaning toward a scenario where the Federal Reserve keeps rates steady, and while some officials have hinted at potential hikes if inflation spikes, there is no strong consensus for tightening. This lack of conviction is keeping the dollar soft and allowing AUD/USD to hold near its highs. Looking ahead, the bullish case remains intact as long as AUD/USD holds above 0.7160 and breaks through 0.7220. A confirmed breakout would likely attract fresh buying and extend the rally. The bearish case would require a rejection from current levels followed by a break below 0.7120, which could trigger a deeper pullback. For now, the trend, structure, and fundamentals are aligned in favor of the bulls, but the pair is approaching a key resistance zone where the next move will define whether this rally continues or pauses.