FX.co ★ Wiking | GBP/USD

GBP/USD is getting a clean lift from softer Dollar sentiment, and this time the move has more behind it than simple technical buying. The pair has pushed toward 1.3610–1.3640 after reports that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal that could end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and cool the recent oil-price shock. That shift in risk mood has hit the US Dollar hard, even though ADP employment came in stronger than expected at 109K. Normally, that kind of jobs surprise would give the Greenback a boost. But traders are looking through the labor data for now because falling oil prices reduce inflation fear and weaken safe-haven Dollar demand. The Pound is also getting support from resilient UK services activity, though domestic politics and rising input costs still keep some caution in the background. GBP/USD Bulls Press Into a Major Resistance Zone The daily chart shows GBP/USD holding a constructive structure above the moving average cluster near 1.3415. That area has become the deeper support base for the broader recovery. Price has continued to build higher from the mid-1.33s and is now testing the 1.3590–1.3640 resistance region. This is an important ceiling because the pair has already struggled around this zone several times. The latest candle shows buyers pushing into the upper Bollinger area, which confirms strength, but it also means price is approaching a stretched zone where profit-taking can appear. A daily close above 1.3640 would be a stronger bullish signal and could open the way toward the next higher resistance band. Buyers Have Control, But the Breakout Needs Confirmation Buyer pressure is clearly stronger right now. The candles show a steady recovery, and the pair remains supported above the rising short-term moving average. The recent dip was bought quickly, which tells us sellers are not getting much follow-through. Still, this is not a free breakout yet. The 1.3640 area remains the immediate barrier. If buyers fail there, GBP/USD could slip back toward 1.3550 and still remain constructive. The bigger issue for sellers is that they need to break the 1.3415 support cluster before they can seriously damage the broader bullish setup. Support, Resistance, and Pullback Zones Immediate resistance sits at 1.3640, followed by 1.3660 and then 1.3700. A clean break above 1.3700 would shift attention toward 1.3760 and potentially the broader descending resistance from higher levels. On the downside, short-term support is around 1.3590–1.3600. Below that, 1.3550 becomes the first pullback zone, followed by 1.3460 and the stronger moving average cluster near 1.3415. As long as price remains above 1.3415, the broader bullish structure stays alive. A daily close below that zone would change the tone and expose the rising structural support from the 1.3035 region. Indicators Support the Bullish Bias Momentum remains positive. RSI is near 59, which supports a bullish bias without showing extreme overbought pressure. MACD is still above the zero line, showing that upside momentum remains active, although the histogram is not expanding aggressively. That means the rally is healthy but not explosive. Stochastic is near the middle zone, suggesting there is room for another push higher if price breaks resistance. Overall, the indicators support buyers, but the market still needs confirmation above the current ceiling. Final View: Sterling Looks Firm, But 1.3640 Is the Gatekeeper The bullish case depends on a sustained break above 1.3640. If that happens, GBP/USD could target 1.3700 and then 1.3760. The weaker Dollar, improved risk mood, and lower oil-price pressure support that path. The bearish case begins if price fails at resistance and drops below 1.3550. A deeper break below 1.3415 would be needed to fully shift the structure bearish. For now, GBP/USD looks strong, but it is trading directly into resistance. Buyers have momentum, fundamentals are helping, and the chart remains constructive. Still, traders need to see a clean close above 1.3640 before calling this a confirmed breakout.