FX.co ★ Wiking | CL/Crude Oil

Crude oil is losing the war premium fast, and the chart is starting to show the same thing traders are feeling across the market. WTI is trading near $90.66 after falling for a third straight day, pressured by reports that US-Iran peace talks are making progress and that communications are underway to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That matters because Hormuz handles a major share of global oil supply, and the market had aggressively priced in disruption risk. Now, with Tehran reportedly reviewing a US peace proposal that could end the war, restart nuclear talks, reopen Hormuz, and potentially remove sanctions, traders are unwinding part of that fear trade. Oil is still far above pre-war levels, but the latest $17 drop from last week’s highs shows how quickly sentiment can reverse when supply-risk headlines cool. WTI Breaks Down From the Recent Highs The daily chart shows a clear bearish shift after WTI failed near the $104–$106 zone. Price has now dropped sharply through the mid-range and is testing the important $90.50 area. This level is not just psychological; it also sits near prior reaction zones where buyers previously stepped in. The problem for bulls is the way price arrived here. The last few candles are heavy, and the break below the short-term moving average cluster shows that sellers have taken control. Unless oil recovers above $94.50–$95.00 quickly, the latest decline may remain active. Sellers Control the Tape, Buyers Need a Strong Reaction Seller pressure is dominant right now. The latest red candles show a clean downside sequence, with lower closes and weak recovery attempts. Buyers may try to defend $90.00 because the market has already fallen aggressively, but there is no strong reversal signal yet. The bounce attempts are shallow, which means sellers are still comfortable pressing the move. For bulls to regain confidence, WTI needs to reclaim $93.30 first, then $95.00. Without that, rallies may continue to be sold. Support, Resistance, and Pullback Zones Immediate support sits at $90.00–$90.50. A decisive daily close below this zone would expose $88.50 and then $86.80. If selling pressure deepens, the next downside target could come near $85.00. On the upside, resistance is located around $93.30, followed by $95.00 and then $98.00. The stronger bullish repair level is near $101.00. Only a recovery above $101.00 would suggest the market is rebuilding the previous war-premium rally. Indicators Confirm Momentum Is Fading The indicators support the bearish tone. RSI is around 45, which shows momentum has slipped below the neutral zone but is not deeply oversold. That leaves room for additional downside if $90.00 breaks. MACD remains above zero but is losing strength, with momentum fading after the previous rally. This tells us the bullish trend is weakening rather than fully reversed yet. Stochastic is near the lower region around 22–28, warning that the market may be stretched short-term. A small bounce is possible, but unless price clears resistance, it may remain corrective. Final View: Peace Hopes Remove the Risk Premium WTI is now trading on peace headlines more than pure demand fundamentals. If talks keep moving forward and Hormuz reopening becomes clearer, oil could continue sliding toward $88.50 and $86.80. But if negotiations stall or Iran pushes back against the reopening process, the market can quickly rebuild risk premium. The bullish case needs a move back above $95.00 to gain strength, while the bearish case stays active below $93.30. For now, sellers have control. Oil is not collapsing, but the fear premium is being drained, and unless buyers defend $90.00 strongly, the downside pressure may continue.