FX.co ★ UFCworriers | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tests $4,741 Breakout Zone as Bulls Ride Dollar Weakness Gold Extends Recovery as Fed Pressure Softens Gold is trading near $4,737, extending its rebound from the $4,500 region and pushing into its highest area in more than two weeks. The move is being supported by a softer US Dollar as markets reassess Federal Reserve expectations and react to improving hopes around a possible US-Iran peace deal. President Trump’s optimistic comments and reports that Washington and Tehran are close to finalizing an agreement have improved broader sentiment, but the situation is not clean. Iranian state-linked media has pushed back against the idea of a broad agreement, while disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program remain unresolved. That uncertainty is keeping some safe-haven demand alive. At the same time, better US ADP employment data at 109K reminds traders that the labor market is still resilient, which limits aggressive Dollar selling and caps gold’s upside. H1 Trend Structure Turns Strongly Bullish The H1 chart shows a sharp bullish reversal from the $4,500–$4,520 base, with price now holding above short-term moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The breakout through the 200-hour EMA and strength above the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels changed the short-term structure clearly in favor of buyers. Price is now testing the 61.8% retracement near $4,741.58, which is the first major resistance area. The recovery has been strong, but the latest candles show slight hesitation near the high, suggesting buyers may need a fresh catalyst before extending higher. Still, the market is no longer in a defensive structure. It has shifted into a bullish recovery phase, and dips are likely to attract interest while price holds above the mid-range supports. Support, Resistance and Breakout Zones Immediate resistance is located at $4,741–$4,750, where the current rally is meeting its first serious barrier. A clean H1 close above this area would strengthen the bullish case and open the way toward $4,807, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that, the broader upside target sits near $4,891, where the previous cycle high could cap momentum. On the downside, first support is around $4,695, the 50% retracement level. If price slips below that, the next important demand zone is $4,648–$4,634, where the 38.2% retracement and 200-hour EMA sit together. This support band is critical. A sustained break below it would weaken the bullish recovery and expose $4,591, followed by the recent swing low near $4,498. Indicators and Ichimoku Momentum Outlook Momentum remains positive, but not perfectly clean. RSI is near 66, which confirms strong buying pressure while still staying below overbought territory. That leaves room for another upside push if buyers clear $4,750. Stochastic is also elevated, showing strong short-term momentum, though it warns that a brief pullback could appear after such a fast climb. MACD is improving, but the broader reading is still not fully convincing because momentum has not completely normalized after the earlier decline. The Ichimoku structure, however, is supportive. Price is trading above the cloud, and the cloud has shifted beneath the market as a support zone. This suggests buyers control the short-term trend, provided price does not fall back below the cloud and the $4,648–$4,634 support band. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios with Final View The bullish scenario depends on gold breaking above $4,741–$4,750 and holding that zone as support. If that happens, XAU/USD could extend toward $4,807, and stronger momentum may later bring $4,891 back into focus. Softer US Dollar conditions, fading Fed hike expectations, weaker jobless claims, or renewed Middle East uncertainty could support this path. The bearish case begins if gold fails at the 61.8% retracement and falls below $4,695. A deeper break under $4,648–$4,634 would suggest the breakout has lost strength and could drag price toward $4,591 or even $4,498. For now, gold remains bullish in the short term, but the rally is testing an important resistance shelf. Buyers have control above $4,695, yet they need a confirmed break above $4,750 to keep the recovery looking powerful.