FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | AUD/USD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the AUD/USD Pair AUD/USD remained under moderate selling pressure near the 0.7250 region during Thursday’s trading session as stronger US inflation data boosted the US dollar and slowed the Australian dollar’s recent rally. Despite the short-term decline, the broader outlook for the pair continues to favor buyers, with price action still holding firmly within a rising ascending channel on the daily chart. Investors are now turning their attention toward the highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, while also monitoring upcoming US retail sales figures for fresh direction across currency markets. The US dollar gained fresh momentum after the latest inflation data from the United States came in significantly above expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain elevated interest rates for longer than previously anticipated. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index inflation accelerated sharply in April, with annual PPI climbing to 6.0% from the prior 4.3% reading. Monthly producer inflation also surged to 1.4%, far exceeding market forecasts of 0.5%. The stronger inflation environment pushed Treasury yields higher and increased demand for the greenback, limiting upside momentum for risk-sensitive currencies, including the Australian dollar. At the same time, traders remain cautiously optimistic regarding the ongoing US-China summit because China continues to be Australia’s largest trading partner and a major source of external demand for Australian exports. Reports suggesting that trade cooperation, economic stability, and Middle East geopolitical tensions are among the key discussion points between Trump and Xi have helped stabilize market sentiment. Any constructive developments emerging from the summit could improve global risk appetite and provide additional support for commodity-linked currencies such as AUD. Market focus is also shifting toward the latest US retail sales report, which could become another major catalyst for AUD/USD volatility. Economists currently expect retail sales growth to slow to 0.5% in April after the previous 1.7% increase. A stronger-than-expected consumer spending report would likely reinforce the bullish US dollar narrative and create additional downside pressure on AUD/USD. On the other hand, softer retail sales data could weaken the greenback and allow the Australian dollar to regain momentum, especially if risk sentiment improves following the US-China discussions. AUD/USD continues to maintain a constructive bullish structure despite the recent pullback from multi-year highs. The daily chart shows the pair trading comfortably inside a well-established ascending channel, confirming that the broader uptrend remains intact. Price action continues forming higher highs and higher lows, which is typically considered a strong bullish continuation signal. Although recent gains have slowed due to stronger US economic data, buyers still appear to control the broader market direction while prices remain above key support levels and moving averages. The pair continues trading above both the 9-day simple Moving Average and the 50-day simple Moving Average, reinforcing the positive medium-term trend structure. The 9-day SMA near 0.7230 is currently acting as immediate dynamic support and aligns closely with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This creates a critical technical support region where buyers are likely to defend bullish momentum during short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA around 0.7109 continues functioning as the primary medium-term trend support and remains an important level for maintaining the overall bullish outlook. Momentum indicators also continue supporting further upside potential. The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains close to the 63 level, signaling healthy bullish momentum without reaching extreme overbought conditions. This suggests that buying interest remains active while still leaving room for additional upward movement if favorable catalysts emerge from economic data or geopolitical developments. In terms of resistance, the key upside barrier remains the recent high at 0.7277, which marked the strongest AUD/USD level since June 2022. A decisive breakout above this resistance level could trigger stronger bullish continuation toward the 0.7350–0.7380 region, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 0.7480. Additional resistance may emerge near the psychological 0.7300 area, where sellers could attempt to slow further gains. On the downside, immediate support remains concentrated around 0.7230, followed by the stronger demand zone between 0.7200 and 0.7210. If bearish pressure intensifies and price falls below the ascending channel structure, the next major support would appear near the 50-day EMA around 0.7109. AUD/USD continues to favor a bullish medium-term outlook as long as the price remains above key support levels and the broader ascending channel structure stays intact.