FX.co ★ Kemie | USD/CAD

USDCAD Price Forecast: I'm analyzing the current price action of the USD/CAD currency pair. The price has been trading sideways for approximately three months, and the bears have been unable to break out of the upward wave pattern. A potential downside move was anticipated when the price tested the horizontal support level at 1.38001. The price remained near this level for several days, attempting to break the upward structure, particularly the horizontal resistance level at 1.38563. Sellers expected further declines, but the price surged and broke through the 1.38563 resistance level. This level then rebounded, continuing the upward trend and testing it once again. The US dollar began regaining ground. Other currency pairs that had recently shown strength against the US dollar, particularly the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, also declined after a prolonged uptrend, contributing to this trend.

The MACD indicator crossed the zero line again, entering buy territory. The price is likely to continue its upward trend along the downtrend line formed by the peaks of the previous two waves, reaching this point smoothly. Beyond technical analysis, the US dollar strengthened following news released last Friday. The Canadian core retail sales index fell more sharply than expected, and Canadian retail sales volume also declined significantly. As a result, the Canadian dollar weakened slightly, and the price reached the target level of the downtrend resistance line. A symmetrical sell pattern appears near this point on the 15-minute chart, suggesting that support is turning into resistance. A rebound from the downtrend line could be attempted. While a direct sell entry at this level is possible, it would be wiser to wait a shorter period to confirm the trend's strength.