FX.co ★ Retired-Mogambo | XAU/USD, GOLD

Although it lacks bullish confidence, gold (XAU/USD) is rising during Tuesday's Asian session and is currently trading slightly above the $4,500 psychological threshold. Fears of a wider regional confrontation are allayed by a temporary ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, which also supports the bullion and prevents further advances for the safe-haven US dollar (USD). However, the demand for the yellow metal is still being undermined by the uncertainties surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, inflation concerns, and potential interest rate increases. On Monday, US President Donald Trump declared on social media that Israel has consented to withdraw any soldiers that were getting ready to strike Beirut and its Hezbollah-controlled suburbs. Additionally, Trump used intermediaries to speak with Hezbollah, a terrorist Lebanese organization with ties to Iran, and obtained a promise that it would not attack Israel. The USD is unable to build on its increase from the day before due to a limited de-escalation of the war. The buck, meanwhile, benefits from conflicting signals over US-Iran negotiations to end a three-month-old conflict. Technically speaking, the precious metal maintains a negative bias by trading below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and holding within a downward-sloping parallel channel. Despite a slight stabilization in momentum indicators, the structure indicates that sellers are still in charge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is actually close to a neutral 49. Nevertheless, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved marginally into negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts are diminishing. As a result, any further rise is more likely to encounter early resistance around $4,615.35, which is immediately followed by the 200-period SMA at $4,619.67, before the channel top at $4,655.17 becomes visible. The present downside pressure would need to be relieved by a prolonged break above this cluster. The lower boundary of the descending channel at $4,320.15 serves as the primary support on the downside, where a clear break would confirm the larger bearish pattern and pave the way for larger losses. The likelihood of a breakout and momentum spike rises when gold approaches the top of a symmetrical triangle. A low volatility inside-day pattern that maintained support close to the uptrend line was the outcome of Tuesday's price action, and it also happened on Monday. An uptrend line and a downtrend line that cross around June 11 indicate important near-term resistance. The 20-day moving average at $4,580 is close to the downtrend line, while the 200-day moving average at $4,418 is close to the uptrend line. These four signs point to the possibility of an impending breakout. Support is being tested close to the 200-day moving average for the second time in a few months. The most recent being the March spike low of $4,098. It's intriguing to observe the clear bullish reaction after the indication was hit. Following the most recent test, which saw a low of $4,366 on Thursday, there was also a bullish reaction. So far, though, it hasn't been as persuasive. This implies that there can be a delay in an enthusiastic response. By then, a bullish breakout of the 20-day moving average and downtrend line will also have occurred. Resistance would then be found at $4,634, close to the 50-day moving average. An early bullish trend reversal will be verified after it is recaptured. The 100-day moving average at the $4,802 target zone and the lower swing high at $4,774 come next. The recent low-volatility environment may be explained by the weekly chart. With a high of $4,595 last week, a possibly bullish hammer candlestick pattern was completed. Along with a trendline break confirmation, a clear breakout above that level would indicate a bullish reversal on the longer time frame.