FX.co ★ Sajidctn | AUD/USD

AUDUSD H1 Technical Analysis – Oversold Breakdown at 0.71110 Below All MAs After Failed Range Rejection *Technical Structure* AUDUSD H1 is trading at *0.71110*, printing fresh lows after breaking horizontal support at *0.71175* and closing below the late May 28 low. Price has been in a broad sideways range since May 19, but the latest drop confirms bearish resolution. All three MAs are sloping down and stacked bearishly: red MA at *0.71420*, blue MA at *0.71520*, and white MA at *0.71550*. Each rally into the red MA since June 2 was sold, showing sellers control the trend.

The break of *0.71175* support is critical. This level held three times between May 28 and June 1, and its failure signals distribution is complete. Current price is testing *0.71050* minor support with no visible demand. The next major support sits at *0.70825*, the May 19 swing low. For any bullish scenario, AUDUSD must reclaim *0.71175* and then *0.71420* red MA. Until then, all bounces are corrective. The MA cluster at *0.71420-0.71550* is now major overhead supply. *Momentum & Volume* RSI(14) reads *25.68*, deep in oversold territory and the lowest reading since May 19. RSI has been making lower lows since the May 29 peak near 70, confirming strong bearish momentum with no divergence yet. Volume at *1,178* is steady on the breakdown candle, with no lower wick, indicating sellers are aggressive and buyers absent. While oversold readings can trigger short-covering bounces, RSI below 30 often leads to continuation before any reversal. For a bounce, RSI needs to reclaim 30 and form a higher low. Until then, momentum favors downside. The lack of bullish divergence warns against bottom-fishing. *Key Levels* *Resistance*: *0.71110* – current price. *0.71175* – broken support now resistance. *0.71420* – red MA resistance. *0.71550* – white/blue MA resistance. *Support*: *0.71050* – session low. *0.70825* – May 19 swing low. *0.70600* – psychological support. *0.70400* – extension target. *Psychology of Trading* This is a range breakdown and stop-run event. Bulls who bought the *0.71175* support repeatedly are now trapped, with stops triggered on the close below *0.71175*. The lack of bounce shows weak hands are capitulating and no dip buyers are stepping in yet. Shorts from *0.71725* and *0.71950* are in strong profit and pressing positions, confident while price stays below *0.71420*. New shorts are waiting for a retest of *0.71175* to enter with defined risk. The oversold RSI at 25.68 will attract mean-reversion traders, but the clean break of a multi-day level suggests smart money is short and will use bounces to add. Buyers from *0.70825* are the last line of defense, but if *0.71050* fails quickly, fear will accelerate the move. The market shows surrender from bulls and conviction from bears. *Conclusion & Outlook* AUDUSD H1 is bearish below *0.71175*, with *0.71420* as key trend resistance. The bias favors selling rallies into *0.71150-0.71175*, targeting *0.71050* and *0.70825*. A H1 close below *0.71050* confirms continuation toward *0.70825* and *0.70600*. RSI at 25 is oversold but shows no reversal signal, supporting more downside before a technical bounce. To flip neutral, price must reclaim *0.71175* and hold, then challenge *0.71420*. Until then, the breakdown and MA structure say sell strength. Use *0.71175* as the pivot: bearish below, cautious above. The range break projects *0.70600* as the measured move. Avoid longs until RSI forms bullish divergence or *0.71420* is reclaimed.