FX.co ★ blaise.rogahn | USD/CHF

The currency pair USD/CHF - W1 chart. For many weeks in a row, the price of this currency pair has been moving sideways, which sometimes happens according to history. Right now, we are in such a stage. Although in essence, a price increase has long been expected but has not occurred. The level of 0.7772, where the price is dancing, is a mirror level at the edge of the decline. For several weeks, it held its defense but was eventually broken upwards, changing its status from resistance to support, becoming a mirror level. It seemed like all conditions were in place for growth, but for some reason, we got stuck here. Moreover, there is an unfulfilled bullish divergence on the MACD indicator being used. A large and beautiful one, a rare phenomenon on such a large scale chart. I believe this is a reason to work upwards on smaller timeframes, and I think all sell formations should be skipped. I will consider the confirmation of this divergence when the price breaks above the 0.8134 level. There isn't much distance to cover relative to this higher timeframe, the main thing is for the price to move in a directed manner upwards, without pulling back with every attempt at growth as it did before. I believe that the second wave is completed at the mirror level, and now we can expect the development of the third wave upwards. A reversal head and shoulders pattern is visible, indicating a potential rise. I think it's just an accumulation phase, where the price is gearing up for an upward movement, accumulating more sellers who are not placing their bets at a short distance, in order to push them upwards. It is obvious to me that overall, in the market excluding metals, all prerequisites point towards the dominance of the US dollar in the month of June. Perhaps the price was being held here until the arrival of summer, some boundary needed to be maintained until a certain point, and then the technical picture could be realized. Although if we look at the second half of last year, the price sometimes likes to grind for quite a while.

D1 chart. Here, the third wave upwards has started. If we overlay a Fibonacci target grid on the first wave, we can see that the 161.8 level roughly coincides with a descending line that can be drawn here, which looks like a good target for the nearest growth. There was a pullback to the support level, and a resumption of growth was expected, which was boosted by positive statistics from the US.