FX.co ★ dusty24 | GBP/USD

The currency pair GBPUSD - D1 chart. Let's start with the month of May. From a technical perspective, it was quite clear. Earlier, a descending pattern formed, followed by an ascending wedge breakout, leading to a significant decline. The pattern was not fully completed. After the downward breakthrough, the horizontal support level at 1.3312 prevented the price from falling further. In that area, some selling was closed out and new buying emerged, causing a substantial price increase, more than half of the previous decline. There was a direct rise to the mirror level of 1.3515, indicating a likely upcoming decline. As expected, a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern occurred. It can be assumed that this pullback after the decline was the second wave. Despite seemingly no obstacles to the realization of a downward scenario, the price remained sideways for a couple of weeks. Ultimately, on Friday, June 5th, there were important news - the so-called Non-Farm Payrolls, employment data in the USA. The figures exceeded expectations, leading to a general strengthening of the US dollar in the market. I believe that we are currently in the third wave of a higher weekly period. The entire decline from late January to April was the first wave. The rise in April was the second wave, and now there is some downward pressure in the third wave. On the daily chart, the wave structure is forming a downward pattern, with the MACD indicator in the selling zone. When implementing the downward scenario, I have set several targets for myself. The first target is the ascending trendline. The second target is the level of 1.3162. And the third target is the 161.8 level according to the Fibonacci target grid overlaid on the first wave. If everything goes according to plan, it is a quite achievable target. Therefore, for trading on shorter timeframes, it is currently relevant to consider only downward movements.

H4 Chart. The price behaved quite unpredictably towards the evening of Thursday. There was a sharp weakening of the US dollar in the market. Apparently, there was some announcement that I was not aware of. But for now, it seems to be just a stop hunt above the peak, with the overall trend still downward. There is a descending trendline present. Since there was no breakout below the lows, it is advisable to expect that to happen.