FX.co ★ Crazy-Trader | USD/JPY

Market Structure Shift Looking at this monthly chart from February 2024 to October 2038, price initially made lower lows and lower highs from 148.641 down to 137.221 in June 2024. This was a bearish structure. However, after the low at 137.221 in June 2024, price reversed and broke above the previous swing high of 140.202 (July 2024) and then 145.786 (August 2024), confirming a Market Structure Shift from bearish to bullish. From that point onward, price made a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows, rising steadily from 137.221 to over 570 by October 2038. Institutional order flow transitioned from distribution to long‑term accumulation. The smart money has been buying on every significant dip for over 14 years. Any retail trader attempting to short this asset is trading directly against the dominant multi‑year institutional uptrend. Liquidity Grab and Order Block The low at 137.221 in June 2024 clearly functioned as a liquidity sweep. Smart money deliberately pushed price below previous swing lows (such as 140.076 in May 2024) to trigger sell‑stop orders from breakout sellers and stop‑losses from long holders, providing liquidity for institutional buy orders. Once those orders were filled, price reversed and began the historic rally. The zone between roughly 137.221 and 142.931 represents the last bearish impulse area before the reversal. This zone is now identified as a Bullish Order Block – where institutions placed large buy orders. Throughout the entire uptrend, each minor correction (e.g., mid‑2025, late‑2026) retraced only to higher lows, confirming that this order block remains active and defended. Displacement and Fair Value Gap The upward move from 137.221 to over 570 occurred with sustained displacement – large monthly candles with long bodies and small wicks, confirming that buying pressure is institutional and persistent. The total increase of approximately 433 points over 14 years shows steady bullish control. Along this ascent, several Fair Value Gaps exist, particularly in areas where price accelerated, such as from 155.771 to 158.626 (late 2024) and from 200.202 to 202.916 (mid‑2026). These gaps act as magnets for potential retracements, but in a strong uptrend, they are often only partially filled. The displacement shows that smart money has been in full control of the upside momentum for over a decade. Current Outlook As of October 2038, price is near 570, sitting at an all‑time high. In SMC, this is not a sell zone – it is a breakout above previous resistance. Smart money will likely allow a minor retracement into the nearest Fair Value Gap (perhaps near 550–560) or a deeper pullback to the most recent Bullish Order Block around 500–520. Once that retracement shows rejection (bullish pin bar or engulfing candle on the monthly), institutions will resume buying to target fresh highs above 580, likely toward 600. The invalidation level for this bullish bias is a monthly close back below 500. Do not short the top – wait for a retracement and buy with the multi‑year institutional trend.